Panasonic is hold their cards close to the vest, but these guys published that in addition to a 68% output, a battery which is exhausted after 3 years will now last 12 years. Those are huge things. One has to assume that Tesla and Panasonic, with the resources they have working on this issue, have achieved something similar.
Nope- the 18650 is too well entrenched, too widely-used, too highly-developed, and too well-loved to be knocked off the throne by a newcomer. Perhaps in 10 years that will be different but I think my prediction is safe for at least 5 years.
Phil
I sure hope the 21700 (aka 21-70) becomes the next oversized battery to take the place of the 26650. It’s only 3mm larger in diameter and 5mm longer than the 18650, yet has a lot more potential for future development whereas the 18650 has already topped out, development wise.
Presently, many protected and hi-cap 18650’s are close to 70mm long and 19mm in diameter so we were headed in that direction anyway.
I’m hoping for a BLF-SE model using a slightly enlarged version of the Eagle Eye X6R as the general format, including the latest version of the BLF backlit tailcap as our next big group-buy!
Article: Huge leaps in e-bike battery capacity coming to e-bikes soon by Elliot Johnston Nov 4 2016.
http://ebiketips.co.uk/content/news/…bikes-soon-428
“New, larger 21700 cell e-bike batteries from Samsung and German battery supplier BMZ, and a 20700 cell from Panasonic have pushed the envelope for e-bike power standards forward.”
“Energy density is higher for the new cells, meaning that 700Wh batteries are likely to be commonplace by 2018.”
“A 21700 cell can have a capacity of 4.8Ah, as opposed to 3.5Ah for an 18650 cell. ”
“The unit also comes with high quality materials including stronger conductors and a greater proportion of active cell material which allows for a claimed 50% increase in energy supply and a 68% increase in output.”
“…the development possibilities of the 18650 cell format are exhausted.”
Also, the newest LG HG6 (20-65) 3000mAh 3.7V 30A discharge current 20650 battery is being advertised for use in power tools.
If they want a bigger FF (and volume) vs the 18650, why not just use the already entrenched 26650? Stick a protection circuit on it and it’ll be a 26700.
Nahhhhhhhhhh…the 18650 is here to stay. Sure, any battery size may exceed it in production numbers, BUT, they will never exceed the number of 18650 sized battery tubes and hands that contain them.
No, the only thing even close the popularity of 18650 is the 26650.
Highly doubt people will want to go with a lower capacity battery than a 26650 anyway, and if they do then 18650 is perfect.
Tesla will make batteries in house and use them for their EVs and Powerwalls. Basically a closed system, no one else is making for Tesla.
So unlikely to have an effect
If they sell bare cells or get others to make for them then possible, though it would be many years if ever for phaseout of 18650, they are used in millions of devices that would all need retooling, and without a reason for mass defection it won’t be done.
Not sure that’s true. I’d scribe a unit circle in a unit square (L = D = 1), and the box scales up and scales down equally. With twice the diameter, you’d have 4 unit-squares instead of 1, but the ratio of space-to-stuff should stay identical. A cylinder would just stretch that in a 3rd dimension.
Packed in a zigzag fashion, you’d only have something different for edge-cases around the periphery.
Anyway…
I think more important would be the rather fixed thickness of the walls of the cells (ie, an AAAA won’t have a foil-thin wall), there’d be more active material in the bigger cells. Ie, by analogy, a jumbo box of cereal would be much more “efficient” vs a trial-size, considering the cardboard of the box is the same thickness in each, so the cereal:cardboard ratio is much higher in the jumbo box. Pretty much, the same goes for any packing material.
Plus, fewer connections total for fewer-but-larger cells, fewer protection circuits, less overhead in tops (even flattop caps), and so on. Otherwise, a nest of 10440s would be most efficient. 
And things like laptops if anything would go to a thinner profile, else use prismatic cells in nice rectangular packages.
Pretty sure that packing circles in a 2 dimensional space works in the exact same way.
The height of the cylinders is completely irrelevant.
You are so right.
I was confused because I actually posted that from the 5th dimension. :weary:
Haha 
I wish I was there too.
Indeed, i actually suspect laptops will be phased out in favour of tablets before they go to a different form factor.
Considering how much of the batteries we use (high discharge 18650s) are greatly driven by the power tool industry it probably depends if they want to make the jump. Or rather if battery manufactures try to get them to by offering high discharge cells in that size. Considering so many power tool companies seem to want to sell different sized battery packs, from tiny 1p setup packs to large 3p packs. Maybe they’ll keep the 18650s for smaller packs and use these for larger ones. I know I’ve seen at least one power tool pack with 26650s, I think they were probably the older sony ones if I recall. It’s not that hard for them to switch toolings since its just some plastic molds that they replace anyway with new models and styling so it depends on the battery companies to offer cells they can use and in turn they will bleed into our market.
I think Tesla has a pretty good chance of sticking with these cells for quite some time, they’ve done the math on all the volume and cooling issues and that would only change if a significant improvement was made. Look how long 18650s have been around, they’ve probably advanced far more then lithium based batteries will in the near future. We are running out of improvements with this chemistry it seems. But who knows maybe they’ll just switch to some other energy storage system.
they already have.most newer laptops i get in for service have thin lipo packs built in.
so has anyone seen anywhere to buy these 21700 cells yet?
Nah, “virtual keyboards” suck except for extremely limited use, especially when they take up half the screen. Real keyboards won’t be going away anytime soon.
Tablets are only really good for primate-type pointy-clicky stuff (poke, poke, drag, drag), not entering text for any prolonged period.
I checked a month ago, not available anywhere…
Just decide on 18650 or 26650, no reason to go in between if there is no benefit of energy density.
I agree, tablets have their place but are not quite a replacement.
That said for non business use the tablet beats the laptop, because portability and battery life make up for a lot of deficiencies.
A couple folks here think that the flashlight industry has any influence on 18650 production. It’d be nice if it were that way, but they don’t care about the flashlight industry.
This is the only other industry that matters now that the laptop industry has been moving away from 18650’s. The only thing really stopping them from switching is the necessity of having to get new injection molds, that, and the availability of 21700’s.
Other Gigafactories are expected to sprout up around the globe, and Finland has already applied for one. Other companies are going to be hard pressed to ignore what’s becoming the biggest industry and customer of prismatic lithium ion batteries. Look at what the 21700 allowed Tesla to do to the capacity and price of the Powerwall 2. Why would other users of prismatic lithium ion cells, like the power tool industry, use more expensive cells if they could use the 21700 to lower costs and increase capacity?