meh……look at AA batteries. Way better tech out there, but consumers are used to them, so they remain.
As mentioned, the flashlight/vap world will have little to no effect on it. LEDs are not even manufactured for flashlights anyway, they just happen to work well for such.
Who knows, the way technology moves forward in leaps and bounds, maybe we will be building mini cold fusion lights in 10 years. :question:
The average consumer will know what an AA is. So manufacturers still produce items with them. The 18650 and other cells like it are not well known by the average consumer. You ask a average consumer what a 18650 is and their response would be “What the hell is that?” Therefore manufacturers do not make common devices for them based on 18650s and other cells. Bare lithium ion cells and the average consumer, not knowing the proper use and precautions, would be a manufacturers worst nightmare.
I’ll bet that AA cells around the 1.5v range will still be around in 50 years. I’ll also bet that 18650 cells will not.
I’m not too worried about them phasing out. By the time 18650 cells are gone, there will be much better lights available that use the better cells, and we’ll all be buying those.
As for existing lights becoming stranded. Yes, that will happen. But it’s going to be awhile, and you’ll still have years left on your existing cells even if you can’t buy any more.
Isn’t the average cell life three years? I thought the chemistry degrades wether used or sitting on the shelf? I noticed allot of laptop batteries past three years lose allot of capacity or are dead.
Of course 18650 cells will be around for many more years.
How else will the many fire brand cell makers be able to fake 20700 and 21700 cells, without 18650 cells to put inside :money_mouth_face: 
It depends on how they are treated. Laptops treat their 18650 cells really bad. They are left 100% charged most of the time, along with a lot of heat from the laptop itself.
But, yes, you’re right that 18650 cells probably don’t have too many years before they need to be replaced for best performance.
How many lights do you have that are a few years old, that you still use regularly? Maybe a few, but I’m betting most of your favorite lights are only a couple of years old.
Even if they stopped making 18650 cells today, by the time your current cells die of old age, you probably won’t be using those 18650 lights anyway.
If you want to be sure your flashlights have supported batteries for decades to come, then your only option is probably AA or AAA cells.
Many new laptops no longer use 18650s. Is it many, or most? I don’t know the stats. But for sure thin laptops with lipo pouches are very common.
Plus, the laptop market is shrinking every year.
I think 18650s will be around for some years but for sure it will be discontinued eventually. The big problem will be when the major manufacturers pull out. Chinese companies will be happy to fill the gap in the market. The cells will be much lower quality.
18650’s aren’t going anywhere.
You must understand how 20700/21700 came to be.
21700 is the maximum size cell that can be manufactured with current 18650 tooling and process.
Size was chosen for cost based on not having to build new machines for 18650 manufacturing facilities.
This is good news then. Perhaps I will buy another MF-01 in a Nichia flavor in a couple weeks!
Lithium ion batteries can last quite a while under the right conditions. I have an Olight T20 that’s about 10 years old, I just gave away the original AW 16350s I bought with it recently. I don’t have a way to test capacity but they weren’t noticeably degraded. They did only have a few dozen charge cycles. Newer chemistries should last even longer.
18650s will not be replaced at least for another two decades.
Maybe we should start a pool on when they stop making 18650s 
Wow, okay, that’s quite a prediction. I’m guessing it might be sooner, though.
There’s almost no consumer demand for 18650 cells, outside of some vapers and flashaholics. All the demand comes from manufacturers that use them in their products. Those manufacturers could switch to another form factor of cell, if it is cheaper and has better capacity, and the public wouldn’t care less.
I’m guessing that whomever wins the electric car war, will get to determine the cell type used in other products.
It’s not cheaper though, and most likely never will be at least for a very long time.
Just like why almost nobody switched to 26650.
Isn’t this part of being a collector by definition (the art of collecting), collecting things some of which may/will become obsolete, even though still operable, and only meaningful to enthusiasts? Vinyl records are an example - which have and are, interestingly, making quite a come back.
I highly doubt that 18650 cells will completely disappear from the market. Their manufacture may eventually become extremely limited and only available to hobbyists, but I believe that we are many years away from that.
Isn’t part of the fun of collecting being able to show “what has been” and the development of things?!
If the 18650 stays as the cheapest/best cell for electric cars, then I agree. Is that what companies like Tesla are using?
If Telsa’s gigafactory uses some other size, then it may become the new standard for cells. Assuming they’re willing to sell cells to manufacturers of power tools, etc. I think that’s probably 10 years away, but not 20.
If 18650 cells are the standard for electric cars, then they’ll be around for quite awhile.
They have been.
Well, yes, but if Tesla is moving to 21700 cells, that might become the new standard. However, I’m not sure what other car manufacturers are doing, so 18650 might be safe.
can’t you still get actual cassettes, for crying out loud?
plus, A and B-cell batteries, for 1923 tube radios…
wle
I believe the 18650 will continue for a long time. The form factor will always come into play (18650 just describes a size really). Example - The AAA hasn’t been phased out because of AA batts. What will change is the chemistry and we will see 18650’s still, though not exactly lithium.
I say buy your lights and chargers and be satisfied because by the time they are obsolete (chemistry-wise and voltage-wise) you will be buying the new chargers and batts. because of all the new benefits, and modding that stuff (older purchases) you are worrying about anyway. Afterall, like a good friend once told me. “If you keep waiting for something better you’ll never have anything because by the time they market it they have already been R&Ding better products and will have something new on the way soon.”