well i still have doubts about the real numbers in German, France and others; i don’t think that someone can escape
TL/dr:
The way things were shaping up in Wuhan, I’ve been wondering about this possibility for a while.
I would not be the least bit surprised if it turns out the number of infections in China is already in the millions, and most cases are either asymptomatic or else mild to moderate severity and not recognized as distinct from influenza.
If the thread is talking about coronavirus status in the world, can the title be edited?
coronavirus is worldwide issue, we, as human, need to combine and fight it.
Why people are concerned?
Because incubation period is about 14 days, the infected person never know he/she was infected untill symptom occurred. When the infected person go to hospital, about 14 days passed, many people met this guy which means a risk of infection.
The infected numbers pulished by government is correct or not, it’s not the key point. If infected people have no symptom, they won’t go to hospital. Then the government will not know how many people infected.
The best way is stay at home, protect yourself if you have to go out. After about 2 weeks, all the infected people have symptom and most will be cured in about 1-2 weeks. Hold on for about a month, the virus stops.
But that is the perfect situation. Different people have different thoughts.
Why people don’t care much?
The lethality rate is only a little higher than flue, some would say: I am strong and healthy, the virus will be killed by my immune system. It’s not a big deal for me.
But think about your famlies, are your kids, parents, friends, neighbours the same strong and heathy as you?
In China, things getting better, but we have not won.
We wear masks everyday.
We try best staying at home except going to office.
We try best not going to public place.
We buy daily necessities online.
Protect yourself, protect your family.
If you have symptom, go to hospital to see if it was caused by coronavirus.
If not, that’s good news.
If confirmed, stay optimistic, the hospital will handle it, you will be cured.
Sooner or later, we will win.
^ 
Well said Barry!
Good idea, title changed.
Thanks a lot SB! :THUMBS-UP: The new title is much more appropriate whereas spreading of the virus via mail has not been proven in a single case.
Update:
New infections are being reported from Adeje, Tenerife (Canary Island, Spain) with now about 1,000 people held in quarantine after an Italian tourist was positively tested for Covid-19. Further infections within Italy were reported in Bergamo (Sicily), Tuscany and South Tyrol. Panic buying in supermarkets and drug stores have already commenced in these regions. Italian authorities are desperately trying to find patient zero but without any success so far.
Italy:
Spain:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51627597
Update 2:
Austria has reported two infected people, i.e. two 24 year old Italians who live in Innsbruck, Austria.
Croatia has reported one infected young man in Zagreb who went to Italy some days ago.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8042079/Austria-confirms-two-cases-coronavirus.html
The current situation proves that the system in Europe to contain the virus spread is not effective:
- Local, regional, national and international authorities do not work effectively together. Only today some ministers have decided to meet in Italy to discuss emergency response plans.
- Communication between different health organizations and local hospitals/authorities is very poor which can lead to dangerous misinterpretations, as can be seen in Cologne (Germany) and Italy now.
- Patients with typical Covid-19 symptoms are put in the same waiting room with all other patients before being presented to the doctor.
- Face masks/respirators to protect oneself or others against the disease are nowhere to buy.
Great post Barry. Some people compare it to the flu. But the flu kills 0.1% while the coronavirus kills aprox 2 to 4% thats 20 to 40 times the amount of people!! And what we have learned is that it kills more by overwhelming the health services of the area. In Hubei the mortality rate is much higher because of that.
Maybe not. So far the mortality-rate is calculated by dividing the number of death’s by the number of confirmed cases. The latter are “created” by medical persons if certain individuals are not feeling well and are showing specific symptoms.
So far several outbreaks are reported without the ability to pinpoint a patient zero. So it is suggested that some infected persons do not show up on the radar because they are not feeling ill, have no symptoms, and therefore do not attribute to the number of confirmed cases.
But these persons are (unwittingly) capable of infecting other people. Who’ll get ill and may die.
Which leads to the rather contradictive conclusion that the mortality-rate is lower because people don’t have to be a confirmed case in order to spread the virus, which then leads to more death’s because we could not see it coming.
Anyway, the “real” mortality-rate will only emerge if and when it’s all over. Which is doubted by some virulogists, who predict this strain will never go away. And will be added to the seasonal/ yearly outbreak of the “common” flu’s that can be more or less contained because for those we have developed a remedy.
Well said Barry!
I thought its also the change that it mutates into something more dangerous, what is making people worry so much. Does anyone know about that.
If you use the same method, based on laboratory confirmed cases, the flu kills about 9%.
One of the big unanswered questions, which will be very difficult to answer, is how many people are infected and undiagnosed?
Many people have only mild or moderate symptoms. Some are completely asymptomatic. And to top things off, submitting yourself for testing is basically asking to be imprisoned for an unknown length of time, which is a pretty compelling motivation to quietly self-quarantine, or even continue life as normal.
As a result, I suspect far more people than we realize already have it.
Thanks Barry0892. I have read a lot about this. Some people seem absolutely terrified about what will happen, and some people seem to have no concern at all. Your post makes very much sense.
The confirmed cases are not symptom based, with the exception of a modest number who were counted based on symptomatic diagnosis for one week.
Per the WHO daily situation reports: “Confirmed cases reported between 13 and 19 February 2020 included both laboratory-confirmed and clinically diagnosed (only applicable to Hubei province); for all other dates, only laboratory-confirmed cases are shown.”
The plan is for those diagnosed based on symptoms to have a laboratory test.
Overall, I think there should be fairly high confidence in the count of confirmed cases. But that doesn’t tell us much, because the number of undiagnosed cases is unknown.
This is something we should also worried about.
Almost all medicines of the world are made in China and India.
This
Our community got anxious when we knew that there were confirmed cases under 2 mile radius. Fortunately, patients are recovering well and i believe one of them has already discharged.
All we can do right now is to boost our own immunity by eating healthier, exercise and sleep well. Avoid crowded places if possible, you might want to wear protective mask if you are worried. Keeping our hands clean at all times and avoid unnecessary touching of face and eyes with bare hands when in public places.
For a single person,
- Freeze down 10 breads
- Buy 15 litres of lactose reduced / free milk, shelf life 2-3 months.
- Check shelf life of all food bought, freeze down spread and buy lots of frozen vegetables and rice / potatos. Chocolate spread has long shelf life.
- Load up on pizza, snacks, syrup, juice, soda etc.
- 10 packs of toilet paper.
- Insure you have enough toothpaste, dental floss, ketchup, soap and shampoo.
- Fill the car with fuel in case there will be shortage.
- Charge up all your flashlights.
- Go out to throw trash at night, after 1 am, when nobody there.
Should be enough to stay 1 month quarantine at home.