I would expect a doughnut hole and no central hot spot, unless the reflector dish surface was textured enough to flood it out.... like an MCE/P7 in a semi-smooth reflector.
Well, that doesn't sound too ideal for a flashlight unless you're really going for flood. I'm curious how much output it would produce with a good IMR 26650. Probably not enough to see any significant gains over a single XM-L. But I wonder about the efficiency in this particular comparison.