My PA40 gets about 150f (67c) through the glass which is not ‘real’ accurate. The head gets about 130f (55c). It depends on how hard the led is driven mainly. The first link you provide has some nice IR meters. I have a Lacrosse that cost $20. You do not have to spend a lot for a pretty accurate one. Hope this helps.
Led wont last if it hits 150C very often. If it does then you need to either lower the drive current or vastly improve the thermal conductivity from pill to host.
Crees new datasheets are all listed at 85°C, my guess would be that this would be a fairly good generalization of an LED running to full specs with a decent heat-sink.