PREDICTING the biggest flash developments that'll hit in 2019.....

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nottawhackjob
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Jerommel wrote:
DD ‘drivers’ will finally lose popularity in 2019 due to low Vf LEDs.

This. IMO the EDC fabric is about to be resown. Essentially small quads ala DS4, S43, etc., with Osram Flat Whites. Heat management issues subsequently for the most part resolved. Carclo type setups specifically tuned to specific LEDs. Drivers, firmware, et al to adjust designs accordingly. I see all this coming. Osram sees it. Maybe even a small cottage all U.S. made company will crop up out of it at some point depending on how far this tariff spiff goes.

PS. I’d go to work sweeping floors at a new U.S. flash company if they gave me a 50% discount. I figure considering what I’ve spent in this “hobby” I’d be ahead even making minimum wage. LOL

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

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Enderman wrote:
I just spent $500 on a laser if that’s any indication. Wink

Some crazy high powered blue module, no doubt. Got a link?

Reviewer for ThorFire, Olight, Sofirn, and others.

More active on Reddit: /u/Virisenox_


 

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Tom Tom
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A crazy obsessive genius with no funds, maybe called Emmet, will put together, in their shed, an arrangement of salvaged laser modules from scrap DVD and Blue Ray burners.

Focussed onto a single Dilithium crystal, to charge up a flux capacitor, using inertial fusion confinement.

Which can then be bounced off the moon, or just a fake moon.

https://gbtimes.com/china-just-bounced-a-laser-off-reflectors-on-the-moo...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-45910479

Maybe we could all have our own individual “fake moons” precisely directed, using CubeSat technology.

But that would never be allowed by big business, and the Lizard people.

Wink
Lightbringer
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Tom Tom wrote:
But that would never be allowed by big business, and the Lizard people. Wink

Nah, the Lizard People are cool with it. I asked.

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CRX
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2019: Tom Tom will design, build, produce & release the perfect driver and be revealed as one of the Lizard People LOL

thijsco19
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Tom Tom wrote:

Cylindrical torches cheaply and easily CNCed out of tube and bar and poorly finished will become unfashionable and some design sophistication, and use of more interesting materials may finally prevail.

A new true BLF Special Edition, put together swiftly by a tight BLF team, that is really special and does something better than anything else, might be started, but I have no high hopes of that, there aren’t many left who have the experience, and I don’t see much new blood coming on.

Bug free UIs may be developed that are instantly understandable by anyone (along with efficient drivers), that don’t require an MCU the size of a planet and a gazillion lines of code just to turn on and off.


I really hope so!
Nitecore is doing great with some of there ‘different than cylindrical’ designs.

I would really like to see some more aluminium cast designs. Or even plastic injection molded lights.

Enderman
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Virisenox_ wrote:
Enderman wrote:
I just spent $500 on a laser if that’s any indication. Wink

Some crazy high powered blue module, no doubt. Got a link?


https://optlasers.com/en/laser-diodes/123-nubm44-445nm-6w-capable-laser-...
Also had to buy a driver, safety goggles, etc and it all added up.
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Maybe in 2019 I’ll finally get the 21700s I ordered… Tired

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Jerommel
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CRX wrote:
2019: Tom Tom will design, build, produce & release the perfect driver and be revealed as one of the Lizard People LOL

CRX will find a way to make threaded parts. Smile

2Q19

CRX
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It’s a journey Wink

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My hopes / predictions for 2019:

  • 100k lumen production run (non-custom) flashlight.
  • FW3A gets released and is in my hands
  • More LEP flashlights and reduced price on LEP.
  • LEP zoomie flashlight
  • Emisar D5: Basically an Emisar D4 with (1) knurled battery tube, (2) recessed button, (3) unibody construction (head and tube are one piece for improved thermal management), and (4) battery tube sized to fit a 21700 cell.
slowtechstef
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Do-it-yourself CRI metrology.

Tom Tom
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slowtechstef wrote:
Do-it-yourself CRI metrology.

That’s called looking with your own eyes and deciding what seems good.

Instead of obsessing over numbers, and graphs, and placing other vocal, maybe a little bit self-obsessed, peoples opinions above your own.

Trust your own judgement.

The technical analyses and reports are very useful, but it all gets messed up for ordinary people who just want to to buy something ordinary, and use it. Instead of having to listen to reports of how dreadful they all are (seems to be a theme), and e.g. an emitter swap is essential, or even that some colour correcting filter must also be applied before it can be tolerated by any “right thinking” person. And that the “BBL” matters not in the least (hint, learn about how eyes respond to colours and intensity, and no, they are not tuned to some hypothetical Plankian emitter).

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I’d like to see more powerful built-in processors, with either WiFi or Bluetooth connectivity to smartphones/computers for full control of adjustments and settings and programming, or even remote operation. Mechanized zoom would be cool as well; I’ve seen them in HID torches. How about solderless MCPCBs and driver boards using ribbon strip conductors for low profile?

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Tom Tom wrote:
slowtechstef wrote:
Do-it-yourself CRI metrology.

That’s called looking with your own eyes and deciding what seems good.

Coincidentally for warmer LEDs it looks the best when it’s high CRI with plenty or deep red and a hue towards red (under BBL)
Quote:

Instead of obsessing over numbers, and graphs, and placing other vocal, maybe a little bit self-obsessed, peoples opinions above your own.

Trust your own judgement.

Of course, but the numbers can tell you what to expect from an LED or it can confirm what you perceived.

Quote:
The technical analyses and reports are very useful, but it all gets messed up for ordinary people who just want to to buy something ordinary, and use it. Instead of having to listen to reports of how dreadful they all are (seems to be a theme), and e.g. an emitter swap is essential, or even that some colour correcting filter must also be applied before it can be tolerated by any “right thinking” person.
You don’t have to care if you don’t care. Smile
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And that the “BBL” matters not in the least (hint, learn about how eyes respond to colours and intensity, and no, they are not tuned to some hypothetical Plankian emitter).
Well, not everyone is a CRI baby, nor should they be.
You’re right about how the visual system responds, but it’s not the full story.
It doesn’t mean that you won’t notice the traits of a certain LED.
For example, skin tones are very telling regarding CRI and the amount of red.
And often you leave a place where there is high quality light (tungsten bulbs, candles, kerosene lights) before you use your flashlight, and then you notice what your LED does.
This also translates to numbers you get by testing.
Pleasing LEDs have he numbers to prove it, as do unpleasant LEDs.

Important? Maybe not, but to some important enough to care about it.
Plus, it’s a welcome development comparing to the XR-E days.
And it’s a hobby where you can choose to pursue perfect lighting.

2Q19

Enderman
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Tom Tom wrote:
slowtechstef wrote:
Do-it-yourself CRI metrology.

That’s called looking with your own eyes and deciding what seems good.

Instead of obsessing over numbers, and graphs, and placing other vocal, maybe a little bit self-obsessed, peoples opinions above your own.

Trust your own judgement.

The technical analyses and reports are very useful, but it all gets messed up for ordinary people who just want to to buy something ordinary, and use it. Instead of having to listen to reports of how dreadful they all are (seems to be a theme), and e.g. an emitter swap is essential, or even that some colour correcting filter must also be applied before it can be tolerated by any “right thinking” person. And that the “BBL” matters not in the least (hint, learn about how eyes respond to colours and intensity, and no, they are not tuned to some hypothetical Plankian emitter).

When you can’t properly convey the tint or colour temperature of a flashlight through a picture (because cameras and monitors and blablabla) measurements are needed to compare and evaluate.

The other option is for each individual to literally buy every LED that exists and compare them in person.

To save time and money, measurement standards were developed.
Welcome to the 21st century where we make educated decisions instead of guesswork.

Tom Tom
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Enderman wrote:

When you can’t properly convey the tint or colour temperature of a flashlight through a picture (because cameras and monitors and blablabla) measurements are needed to compare and evaluate.

The other option is for each individual to literally buy every LED that exists and compare them in person.

To save time and money, measurement standards were developed.
Welcome to the 21st century where we make educated decisions instead of guesswork.

Nope, that’s just part of trying to put things into neat little boxes, where a single number, or parameter, can be used as a marketing tool, or bludgeon, to steer the masses in the desired direction. Or utterly mis-lead. Or create a job for life on a standardisation committee and reap the rewards.

Some manufacturers really are trying. Others don’t have a clue. For example, the “eco-friendly” LED powered streetlamps that have been mandated here (CO2 emissions reduction grants incentivising this, together with jobs for the boys tearing down the old and replacing with the new) to replace the previous equally efficient high pressure sodium orange jobs are an example.

The dismal, dreary output of the LEDs is instantly obvious, as is the superiority of the old high pressure sodium lamps, in real use. And for old eyes. And in UK weather (generally wet, misty, foggy) And at least astronomers could filter out the sodium line from their imaging with a straightforward filter.

Start here for some self education, it is a complex subject, and above all, trust your own eyes and judgement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_vision

And try to remember that it is all just a delusion, a trick of the imagination, something learned, maybe then un-learned, particularly when others are determined to put doubt in your mind. And if you were a different animal, or just have a Y chromosome, or descended from a different ethnicity, things probably look completely different. Blue eyes (me) vs. brown, for example.

Bottom line is that LEDs are generally rubbish, they usually don’t match the human eye, its just that some are better than others. Some do try their best, but it is an imperfect and not well controlled or understood process. Binning under test is one (expensive) way, but as soon as you start cherry picking the “good ones” you have to accept that the leftovers become less desirable. But still have to be sold to somebody, if the overall process is to be viable. Making them all “perfect” isn’t possible yet, that’s just the way the phosphor gods throw the dice. Then we modders like to burn them up at vastly higher currents, and are surprised to find that things change yet again, and no, they no longer last “20,000 hours”.

A Sun, an incandescent filament bulb, a flame, a mantle, all deliver much nicer light. But don’t have the surface brightness that an LED can make. (Perhaps the Sun does, but I haven’t researched the numbers). At 5778 Kelvin surface temperature, then filtered through our atmosphere, usually half sideways at my latitude, it is hard to tell.

Perhaps a standard candle, made of Spermaceti extracted from the heads of whales, might be more useful ?

Tricky to insert into an integrating sphere though, and might make it sooty.

I’m not sure our current standards are any better, though at least one person is trying and selling his “standard candles” calibrated in arbitrary but hopefully consistent units.

Meanwhile hanging on to my stash of incandescent bulbs (banned), and halogens (also banned). Expecting fire to be banned next, atmospheric oxygen taxed, and farting to become a crime.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/23/europe-to-ban-haloge...

I didn’t even know that we had a “Prince of Wales’s corporate leaders group” until I read that article. Heaven help us when he finally gets the reigns, and his feet under the table.

I wonder what the requirements are to become a “corporate leader” and join the POW’s lunch club ?

Jerommel
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Tom Tom wrote:
Enderman wrote:

When you can’t properly convey the tint or colour temperature of a flashlight through a picture (because cameras and monitors and blablabla) measurements are needed to compare and evaluate.

The other option is for each individual to literally buy every LED that exists and compare them in person.

To save time and money, measurement standards were developed.
Welcome to the 21st century where we make educated decisions instead of guesswork.

Nope, that’s just part of trying to put things into neat little boxes, where a single number, or parameter, can be used as a marketing tool, or bludgeon, to steer the masses in the desired direction. Or utterly mis-lead.

Meh, people test LEDs and share their results so you and i can get a pretty good idea of how it will be in real life.
BUt i said this already in reaction to you… Facepalm
Quote:

Or a whole mass of measurements, presented in a 2D graph, is more impressive.

Some manufacturers really are trying. Others don’t have a clue. For example, the “eco-friendly” LED powered streetlamps that have been mandated here (CO2 emissions reduction grants incentivising this) to replace the previous equally efficient high pressure sodium orange jobs are an example.

Yep, CO2 guilt is big business…
Are you sure the Sodium lamps are just as efficient though?
Quote:

The dismal, dreary output of the LEDs is instantly obvious, as is the superiority of the old high pressure sodium lamps, in real use. And for old eyes. And in UK weather (generally wet, misty, foggy) And at least astronomers could filter out the sodium line from their imaging with a straightforward filter.

Start here for some self education, it is a complex subject, and above all, trust your own eyes and judgement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_vision

Bottom line is that LEDs are generally rubbish, its just that some are better than others.

YEs, still a long way to go…
But recent developments are going in the rightdirection, regarding tints and colour rendition and efficiency.

2Q19

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If you have never used a real neutral, high-cri, high-R9, high tm-30-Rf, at-or-below bbl led, you really can’t grasp what is possible. Most people don’t know how good LEDs can actually be these days. They are used to those that “suck”.

Jerommel
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It would be nice if manufacturers of lights used in traffic (street lights and head lights in particular) realized the nice LEDs give high quality light and the importance of high quality light (less glare, better vision etc…).
It seems they’re still stuck on output and efficiency figures…
Same goes for HID lights by the way.
It ought to be forbidden to use cool white head lights, especially in tiny headlight units with clear (not pebbled, ribbed or frosted) collimating lenses, reflectors and covering lenses.
I remember in the 80s and 90s the headlight units were large and diffused. Not blinding, no tint shift due to collimating lenses.
It was easy to estimate the distance between you crossing the street and the cars back then.
And all were warm white, 100CRI and R9100.

2Q19

Tom Tom
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[quote=Jerommel]
Are you sure the Sodium lamps are just as efficient though?[quote]

Yes, perhaps even better. And the spectrum that they put out is all useful, at least to humans.

https://www.azooptics.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=577

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The best High Pressure Sodium (HPS) lamps can deliver right around 100 lumens per watt, which at this point is only marginally lower efficiency then the best LED’s. Low Pressure Sodium is another matter entirely. If you can stand the color, because it is basically a monochromatic yellow, LPS can delivery over 200 lumens per watt in some lamps. There is however a significant difference in lifetime however, and LED’s are generally longer lived than HPS. The real question however is what is the longevity of the supporting electronics for the LED, and I suspect much of it will come up well short of the LED life expectancy. Generally HID ballast have very long life. There aren’t any active components in them, so if well designed, 20-30 years is not unrealistic. The problem with Electronics is that once you get past about 10 years, repairs become a real challenge because the parts they were built with no longer exist!

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mattheww1950 wrote:
The best High Pressure Sodium (HPS) lamps can deliver right around 100 lumens per watt, which at this point is only marginally lower efficiency then the best LED’s. Low Pressure Sodium is another matter entirely. If you can stand the color, because it is basically a monochromatic yellow, LPS can delivery over 200 lumens per watt in some lamps. There is however a significant difference in lifetime however, and LED’s are generally longer lived than HPS. The real question however is what is the longevity of the supporting electronics for the LED, and I suspect much of it will come up well short of the LED life expectancy. Generally HID ballast have very long life. There aren’t any active components in them, so if well designed, 20-30 years is not unrealistic. The problem with Electronics is that once you get past about 10 years, repairs become a real challenge because the parts they were built with no longer exist!

Go take a look at the lumens/watt numbers and maybe you will realize that 100lm/W is not “marginally lower than the best LEDs”
http://budgetlightforum.com/node/51481
http://budgetlightforum.com/node/57715
Tom Tom
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Jerommel wrote:
It would be nice if manufacturers of lights used in traffic (street lights and head lights in particular) realized the nice LEDs give high quality light and the importance of high quality light (less glare, better vision etc…). It seems they’re still stuck on output and efficiency figures… Same goes for HID lights by the way. It ought to be forbidden to use cool white head lights, especially in tiny headlight units with clear (not pebbled, ribbed or frosted) collimating lenses, reflectors and covering lenses. I remember in the 80s and 90s the headlight units were large and diffused. Not blinding, no tint shift due to collimating lenses. It was easy to estimate the distance between you crossing the street and the cars back then. And all were warm white, 100CRI and R9100.

It used to be that, in France, all headlamps had to have yellow beams. Changing the bulbs over in the VW camper was a twice yearly ritual, every summer.

We used to bimble about in towns with streetlights, using only sidelights, which we only turned on after “lighting up time”, cyclists and pedestrians were much safer. You’d even get flashed at to remind you to turn the lights off, if you left them on in daylight. Main and dipped beam was only used on “the open road” We still have sidelights in the UK, but they are never used.

The design and materials used for French numberplates were unique also.

Then the EU happened, and very soon it became Germanic. With standards homogenised to suit the most car-crazy nation on the planet, no limits. Try a night drive on a busy unlimited Autobahn and learn real fear. And utter disregard for any road user not in possession of a really fast car (AKA weakling scum).

Just hope that you don’t meet a “Ghost Driver”, another peculiar Germanic tradition, and a popular way to commit suicide whilst destroying as many other lives as possible.

Massive insane high speed pile-ups in fog and other bad weather also a tradition, and it is now the season for them too.

Jerommel
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Yeah, the yellow headlights were great!
Much less blinding and providing good vision even though it’s a loss in lumens (blue is blocked).

2Q19

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Enderman wrote:
Go take a look at the lumens/watt numbers and maybe you will realize that 100lm/W is not “marginally lower than the best LEDs” http://budgetlightforum.com/node/51481 http://budgetlightforum.com/node/57715

Streetlamps don’t seem to use “the best” LEDs, at least not around here. Some pretty disgusting ones actually. But it seems we will be stuck with them for many years to come, though I am already seeing individual LED failures only a couple of years after they were put in.

My nice sodium streetlamp lasted at least 30 years, with no maintenance, and I, and my neighbours were upset when when they were all ripped out and replaced one week.

Designed for maintainability though, the post now has a hinge in the middle, so a two person team can lower it without needing a cherry-picker. Thinking ahead ?

It is an insubstantial piece though, I had confidence chaining a motorbike to one of the old ones, not so much with these.

It used to be that you could crash a car into one, fast, and no damage was visible (to the lamp, not the car)

Talk is that they are all going to be replaced, again, this time with EV charging points included. Yet more jobs for the boys, perhaps I should just get with the programme and become one.

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I’m not sure anymore if the latest developments in LED technology will ever spark basic common sense usage in larger user groups obviously benefiting. How many average artists displaying, photographers shooting or even professionals/blue collars ‘working’ seem to grasp lighting concepts helping them perform or monetize in any manner ‘today’ ….despite how easily deployed inexpensive quality lighting has become?

I guess that one has to have some kind of faith in their fellow man somehow looking around and realizing much of anything…which is beginning become somewhat of ‘a stretch’ unfortunately.

Fire in the first caveman’s hands seems a better bet.

Domari Nolo “I Refuse to be Subjugated” (1st Pennsylvania Regiment Flag) https://www.1stcontinentalregiment.org/blank
(Flagguys.com):..and man o man did they ever refuse to be subjugated. These guys were everywhere. They were important in Washington’s siege of Boston. They stayed behind and were the last to leave after covering the main army’s dangerous nick of time retreat from Long Island. They crossed the Delaware with Washington. They were “..at Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth, and every major skirmish, and battle all the way to Yorktown..” where they fought “the most important part of the siege” according to General Steuben. These guys saw action in every one of the original 13 colonies.

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For all “the best” LEDs, that we sophisticates cherish, there are so many more mundane ones. In, boring, use.

That’s not going to change. Nor can it.

So enjoy what you have discovered here, but don’t forget the vast majority of the ordinary un-enlightened, who just want to go to a local hardware shop and buy something fit-for-purpose, perhaps once every ten years, or as a gift, powered by something readily available, that doesn’t require an analysing charger and a multimeter to keep in prime condition, nor have an understanding of the possible consequences of making, or failing to recognise, a mistake. Nor an in-depth knowledge of available cells, their pros and cons, and available (or dodgy) supply routes from the persecuted land of far-far-away, who, basically, own you, already.

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nottawhackjob][quote=Jerommel wrote:
Carclo type setups specifically tuned to specific LEDs.

At $20k per optics mold – not going to happen. Sad

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