Just listened to this hour long interview with Cree co-founder John Edmond. Most of it was all over my head but still very interesting to listen to, and to hear where the LED industry in general is heading. Its cool that Cree is an American company, and all Cree LEDs are made in the USA. I didn't know that, figured they were from Japan or something. They have a really cool history.
He said they are producing billions of LEDs per year. Pretty cool.
Cree are now making dies (blue) at 175lm/W and expect to reach 200lm/W by 2013. Knock 20-25% off once the phosphors are added to hit the real world. With phosphors, the Cree guy is saying the upper theoretical limit is around 250lm/W. By using red, green and blue dies, he expects 350lm/W to be achievable - just not soon.
His metric is lumens per watt per dollar. Which makes sense to me.