Should we be worried?

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Cochise334ever
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Another similar thread.SEE my Post #8 with an explanation derived from a battery dealer and owner, Jon from Liionwholsale.com

He started mentioning this in December 2020 and elaborated in Late March 2021…basically old news.

https://budgetlightforum.com/node/77883

To admit is to acknowledge.To Accept is to take action.

jeff51
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I wonder about the future of 18650s. They were produced in the zillions for every laptop in the world.
Now none of laptops use them.
Then some electric cars used them in the millions(?) of cells.
Now makers seem to be moving to a higher density cell.

What’s left for the 18650? Lots of medical devices use them for internal backups. Many inexpensive rechargeable thingies use them. But perhaps it is the abundance of cheap 18650s that drives the inexpensive thingies market.
If another format becomes the cheapest option, the cheap thingies market will shift.

Remember the 5.25” floppy drive? They went from common as sand on a beach to not available in like a year of two. And I’ve still got 3 new in the wrapper ones sitting on the shelf. Guess I didn’t read that one real well.
All the Best,
Jeff

raccoon city
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I had a Commodore 64 and remember the 5.25" floppy disks well.  :BEER:

turkeydance
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“You freeze milk and eggs?”
yes.
“You are kidding right?”
no.

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/can-you-freeze-milk#:~:text=Most%20....
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/can-you-freeze-eggs#freezable-types

ammo in the refrigerator:
i said “try”.

Photon Master
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Won’t matter what the United States or Europe does if China doesn’t stop burning coal. We’re just a rounding error compared to their emissions.

max
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Photon Master wrote:
Won’t matter what the United States or Europe does if China doesn’t stop burning coal. We’re just a rounding error compared to their emissions.

 

Agree 100% with that statement.  I remember reading that the way China is growing they are having to build a new coal burning power generating plant every week to provide enough electricity for their needs.

 

 max

zoulas
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The problem the world has is over population. End of story.

If you were to cover the entire earth in solar panels, it would not yield enough energy for 10% of the planet.

We are being told complete crap by politicians. Some believe it, some don’t. I don’t.

gravelmonkey
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Trying to bring this thread back on track: Should you stock up on 18650 (and other cells) now?

My thoughts along the lines of this, too:

jeff51 wrote:
I wonder about the future of 18650s. They were produced in the zillions for every laptop in the world.
Now none of laptops use them.
Then some electric cars used them in the millions(?) of cells.
Now makers seem to be moving to a higher density cell.

What’s left for the 18650? Lots of medical devices use them for internal backups. Many inexpensive rechargeable thingies use them. But perhaps it is the abundance of cheap 18650s that drives the inexpensive thingies market.
If another format becomes the cheapest option, the cheap thingies market will shift.

Remember the 5.25” floppy drive? They went from common as sand on a beach to not available in like a year of two. And I’ve still got 3 new in the wrapper ones sitting on the shelf. Guess I didn’t read that one real well.
All the Best,
Jeff

Perhaps, in the future, 5-10 years, new 18650 flashlights won’t be a thing any more as manufacturers make bodies to fit whatever the popular cell size is at that time. Cells last 5+ years after theyre manufactured, so plenty of time to upgrade.

Could well be possible to bore the bodies of our lights to take new sized cells- used to be a popular Surefire mod to run 18650 cell in place of CR123s…

BlueSwordM
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Better yet: we just make a BLF groupbuy for BLF designed cells Cash

Does anyone have a few million dollars to spare Silly

My very own high current Beryllium Copper springs Gen 3:
http://budgetlightforum.com/node/67401
Liitokala Aliexpress Stores Battery Fraud: http://budgetlightforum.com/node/60547

max
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BlueSwordM wrote:
Better yet: ...... Cash Does anyone have a few million dollars to spare :P

Not here - that's the other BLF (Billionaire Light Forum).

 

 max

Photon Master
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I want a light with the new 4680(0) Tesla battery

BlueSwordM
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Yeah, their 46800 cell looks pretty nice.

Dry electrode tech, tabless design, aluminium casing, chemistry tweaks.

My very own high current Beryllium Copper springs Gen 3:
http://budgetlightforum.com/node/67401
Liitokala Aliexpress Stores Battery Fraud: http://budgetlightforum.com/node/60547

NeutralFan
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Hopefully the 18650 size will be similar to AAs and 9 volt batteries, a staple for lots of stuff for many years/decades to come.

But if not, what can we do? Li-ion batteries will only last so long (even if not used) so it doesn’t seem practical to stock up on them. For me, I guess I’ll take my favorite LEDs and drivers and transfer them to new hosts.

I’d rather use my flashlight around the house than turn on the lights.

Photon Master
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To me capacitors are the holy grail…. They charge in less than a minute and can discharge hundreds of thousands of times. The only issue is they have lower capacity than Li-ion

Someone made a handheld power drill with one but I can’t seem to find it. I think it only have half the run time as a chemical battery drill though

edit https://www.instructables.com/Rechargeable-Handheld-Capacitor-Flashlight/

zoulas
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Photon Master wrote:
To me capacitors are the holy grail…. They charge in less than a minute and can discharge hundreds of thousands of times. The only issue is they have lower capacity than Li-ion

Someone made a handheld power drill with one but I can’t seem to find it. I think it only have half the run time as a chemical battery drill though

Yes, Casio watches use them. They will run virtually continuously. They need light once a week for a minute or so. Incredible technology.

bhuvi
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I guess yes to a certain extent, as you know such great convenience comes at a price. We may be saving money on fuel by using electrical vehicles but the point of worry is that there will be a massive decrease & inadequacy in manufacturing elements. Therefore, chances are high either resources will be squeezed or prices are gonna touch the sky as you mentioned. However, the environment expect a bit of relief. So it's a win-win situation if manufacturers are able to preserve and provide services for so long without putting anything at stake, then it will be a great alternative and if not, we will have to be ready to pay some extra money to run electrical vehicles.

Photon Master
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I was thinking yesterday that since global warming seems to already be happening and is rather inevitable, it might be better to look at adapting – I.e. ensuring plentiful access to electricity, air conditioning…

However I just saw an article that talked about how A/C is (obviously) making the world hotter.

Certainly a less than ideal situation. Maybe we should indeed be building O’Neil cylinders and building cities on Mars, the moon, asteroids, etc.

zoulas
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This is just another chapter for planet earth. Human beings are going to destroy themselves. One day, the new civilization will be talking about us the same we we talk about dinosaurs. The good news is we have about 50 million years before the full damage is complete. So we have some more time to buy flashlights.

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I’m putting my money on the Mighty Cockaroach.

09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0

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Is this where I mention that it could be. The Reptilians behind this warming the earth before the invasion. Or is that too of topic? Back to the batteries. My view is that cell will go on as portable power is still a real thing. Today no body worries about AA introduced 1907, C 1900 and D 1898 cells, we just buy them. Cells come and go as our electronics evolve. 14500, 18650 which has been here since 1992, 26650, and others will be around for years. New ones will show up 21700 came up in 2015, 26800 in 2019, 46800 in 2020. Our preferred cells here, Lithium-ion have about a ten year well used life. We’re emerging out of a year long lock down with very reduced manufacturing. Give it a year or two for product to fill the selves again. It’s just a conspiracy by the Greys to get us to buy more flashlights.

Oli
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I doubt that the 18650 is going away anytime soon. It is likely that some manufacturers will limit production to certain models and other manufacturers may drop the size all together as a business decision. So your favorite 18650 will not be around forever. But there will be some quality cells for the foreseeable future.

Photon Master
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It’s funny how people say we’re destroying the Earth. If/when humans become extinct, the Earth will recover just fine in a million or even 10 million years.

zoulas
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We tend to think 100 or 200 years ago is a long time. The earth is 4.5 billion years old. A lot has changed during that time.

idleprocess
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Photon Master wrote:
I want a light with the new 4680(0) Tesla battery

Same here. If it has Ah/cm³ similar to 18650 / 21700 it should be north of 20 Ah. Even 5C discharge would be impressive.
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zoulas wrote:
Photon Master wrote:
To me capacitors are the holy grail…. They charge in less than a minute and can discharge hundreds of thousands of times. The only issue is they have lower capacity than Li-ion

Someone made a handheld power drill with one but I can’t seem to find it. I think it only have half the run time as a chemical battery drill though

Yes, Casio watches use them. They will run virtually continuously. They need light once a week for a minute or so. Incredible technology.

There may have been actual capacitors (as in the electronic engineering definition, storing energy via capacitance) used at some point in kinetic or solar watches but all the ones I’ve actually seen pictures of are various chemistries of li-ion batteries. It could be the case that if any exist using capacitors they aren’t replaceable and/or aren’t visible with a watch’s caseback opened.

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So apparently due to Samsung shifting production priorities, their bellwether 30Q 15A 18650 cell is now becoming scarce. Those who have them are charging more than double what they used to cost.

Computer makers are are pushing laptop form factors to be like tablets with greater power & a keyboard, which means an 18650 is too thick. Proprietary lipo packs. And so demand is slowing in that arena, not to mention laptop demand lowering while tablets and large form smartphones are eating into it.

21700 cells are a nice step up from 18650, which also makes for less 18650 demand. But I suspect there won’t be a sharp drop-off anytime soon.

For now, what’s a good substitute for the Samsung 30Q?

h2o
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I think pacemakers use capacitors for power. I know there are watches that use a capacitor instead of solar or battery, they need servicing after about 10 years

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