Should we be worried?

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mgracia85
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Should we be worried?

With all the new push towards electric vehicles, I am afraid that battery prices are either going to sky rocket or the batteries themselves will come in short supply. Should we load up now??? Just a thought

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TexasToasted
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I’m not worried. I don’t stock batteries near as hard as ammo, but I have enough to last a long time Big Smile
And every time I order a Sofirn light, I get it with the battery. Good batteries at low prices.

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Given how many laptop pulls I have that are still absolutely usable, I’m not worried about the unused (except for capacity checks) and otherwise brandy-new 30Qs, etc., I got stored.

Mostly I use come-with batteries (Sofirn/Wurkkos/Wuben/Nitecore/etc.), and they’re still going strong.

So between the expected long life of the cells (used and unused), and anything that takes 18650 or larger (if any 21700s/26650s go teats-up), I’m probably set for life.

Soooooo, nope, ain’t worried.

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NeutralFan
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It seems lately that 18650 batteries are of short supply and have higher prices. I recently bought some batteries for a higher price than normal from an online store rather than continue to wait for another store to get them back in stock for a lower price. I bought them fearing that they may also go out of stock.

I wouldn’t be that worried about them going crazy high priced in the future. If anything, since there will be more of a demand for them, there should be more of a supply and hopefully reasonable prices. Not like our much needed Li-ion batteries to power our flashlights are going away due to some new chemistry any time soon.

I’d rather use my flashlight around the house than turn on the lights.

Bort
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Battery prices are expected to fall to $50/kWh by 2025. So our 18650/21700s should drop in price substantially instead of rising.

The Journal of Alternative Facts TM

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zoulas
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Stocking up on batteries is like stocking up on milk. They are just gonna go bad before you use them.

Ammo is a completely different story.

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Got milk ?

 

Oh yeah ....we gots lots a milk 

 

 

 

       καὶ τὸ φῶς ἐν τῇ σκοτίᾳ φαίνει καὶ ἡ σκοτία αὐτὸ οὐ κατέλαβεν

                            

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TexasToasted
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zoulas wrote:
Stocking up on batteries is like stocking up on milk. They are just gonna go bad before you use them.

Ammo is a completely different story.

Having been through several hurricanes, floods and a recent deadly winter storm causing weeks long power outages, I like to keep a good supply of batteries for myself and my family. I have a looooot of flashlights Big Smile
I probably have around 50 cells stored at 3.6V in nonconductive, watertight containers in the the fridge. Half of those are good laptop pulls tested for capacity, IR, and long-term self discharge, I keep another few dozen charged in my various working lights.

Ammo is a whole nother story. I’m ready for the zombie apocalypse.

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zoulas wrote:
Stocking up on batteries is like stocking up on milk. They are just gonna go bad before you use them.

Ammo is a completely different story.

Ammo can go bad as well. I live in a humid environment. Have a room dehumidifier, and everything packed tight into ammo cans (some of which have desiccant paks) which are stored in safes….ok, cabinets that lock.

Still, it can go bad.

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18650s are still cheap and plentiful. Assuming you buy from “2nd tier” manufacturers like Molicel or DLG or Lishen.

The traditional big names (Panasonic/LG/Samsung/Murata/etc) don’t seem to be making 18650s that much any more. But I don’t blame them – auto manufacturers are paying those guys billions for EV batteries. They probably prefer to deal with a few customers who have very deep pockets instead of lots of customers who just want 1 case of batteries.

Try the largest, fastest, most flexible flashlight search engine: parametrek.com

58 brands, 2773 models and still growing!

NEW: US battery database and European battery database

zoulas
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Dont get me wrong, I have my share of batteries and always look out for good deals. I probably have 12 new 21700 and 12 18650’s and 26650’s not to mention al the used ones already in lights. I also have about 100 rechargeable AA and AAA, 50 or so new alkaline, and a bunch of button cells like 2032.

I dont consider this stockpiling, just a normal consumer of batteries.

TIFisher
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Similar discussion back in April…

https://budgetlightforum.com/node/77305

kat
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Bort wrote:
Battery prices are expected to fall to $50/kWh by 2025. So our 18650/21700s should drop in price substantially instead of rising.

They were saying same thing 5 years ago, and battery prices keep rising.
I don’t think supply-demand free market works with lithium batteries.
It’s obvious that governments keep forcing batteries with policies because they think it reduces emissions,. That’s why so many manufacturers switch to battery power. But this is unnatural because it’s driven by politics, not by free market. It is not sustainable so prices keep rising.

max
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No do not be worried.

 

Ammo is another story. And it never goes down in price.

 

 max

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kat wrote:
Bort wrote:
Battery prices are expected to fall to $50/kWh by 2025. So our 18650/21700s should drop in price substantially instead of rising.

They were saying same thing 5 years ago, and battery prices keep rising.
I don’t think supply-demand free market works with lithium batteries.
It’s obvious that governments keep forcing batteries with policies because they think it reduces emissions,. That’s why so many manufacturers switch to battery power. But this is unnatural because it’s driven by politics, not by free market. It is not sustainable so prices keep rising.


This was not common narrative 5 years ago, Tesla was considered a joke by the media, hit pieces were published with regularity and people were whining about how EVs cannot be viable. Tesla killers were common folklore.
Wholesale battery prices have been dropping for about a decade. Consumer prices are not quite the same story because manufacturers don’t actually condone our battery use, they sell in bulk for battery packs and some are diverted to single unit sales (often against manufacturers blessings).
Politics is actually slow to mandate EVs, its only in the last couple years governments are caring more than a soundbite.

So it does not work the way you are saying.

The Journal of Alternative Facts TM

"It is critical that there is a credible academic source for the growing and important discipline of alternative facts. This field of study will just keep winning, and we knew that all the best people would want to be on board. There is a real risk in the world today that people might be getting their information about science from actual scientists"

 

zoulas
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I just hope the quality keeps increasing.

turkeydance
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three things:

1. since Milk was mentioned: we freeze Milk. ours lasts over a year. we freeze eggs, too.
2. about Ammo: try the refrigerator, not the freezer. cool and dry and dark similar to the bunkers militaries use to stockpile theirs.
3. now Batteries: go ahead and stock up. they are cheap enough. if shortages never happen it did not cost much to load up.

flightless22
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TexasToasted wrote:
zoulas wrote:
Stocking up on batteries is like stocking up on milk. They are just gonna go bad before you use them.

Ammo is a completely different story.

Having been through several hurricanes, floods and a recent deadly winter storm causing weeks long power outages, I like to keep a good supply of batteries for myself and my family. I have a looooot of flashlights Big Smile
I probably have around 50 cells stored at 3.6V in nonconductive, watertight containers in the the fridge. Half of those are good laptop pulls tested for capacity, IR, and long-term self discharge, I keep another few dozen charged in my various working lights.

Ammo is a whole nother story. I’m ready for the zombie apocalypse.

How do you maintain them? I have a few dozen and I find baby sitting them extremely tedious. Not many chargers (at least the inexpensive ones) allow you to charge/discharge the cells to a certain voltage.

TIFisher
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I have enough to cover rotation (with the exception of 14500’s, of which I accumulated more than I’ll ever need searching for the best cell for my GT Micro NM1). At my age, and rate of discharge/ charge cycles on the various cells in use in my modest flashlight inventory, what I have will outlast me by years. The only situation that would prompt additional stockpiling is if I needed matched sets for multi cell lights (which I’m just not into), new to me light/cell size, or better matching amperage specs for LED’S with unregulated drivers. I’m still looking for a quality sub 9A 26650 for my EA02 (that will fit in its under-bored tube).

zoulas
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turkeydance wrote:
three things:

1. since Milk was mentioned: we freeze Milk. ours lasts over a year. we freeze eggs, too.
2. about Ammo: try the refrigerator, not the freezer. cool and dry and dark similar to the bunkers militaries use to stockpile theirs.
3. now Batteries: go ahead and stock up. they are cheap enough. if shortages never happen it did not cost much to load up.

I had to read this twice. You freeze milk and eggs? You are kidding right?

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Some places have them now but a month ago I couldn’t find any Samsung 30Q or 35E. Also no LG MJ1.

Photon Master
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Hey, look on the bright side. Maybe batteries will get more expensive because of the tree huggers and their electric cars but maybe coal powered flashlights will be the next thing

Bort
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Photon Master wrote:
Hey, look on the bright side. Maybe batteries will get more expensive because of the tree huggers and their electric cars but maybe coal powered flashlights will be the next thing

The Journal of Alternative Facts TM

"It is critical that there is a credible academic source for the growing and important discipline of alternative facts. This field of study will just keep winning, and we knew that all the best people would want to be on board. There is a real risk in the world today that people might be getting their information about science from actual scientists"

 

zoulas
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Photon Master wrote:
Hey, look on the bright side. Maybe batteries will get more expensive because of the tree huggers and their electric cars but maybe coal powered flashlights will be the next thing

You know in NY they tell people to conserve electricity in the summer because the Con Edison power lines oveheat and often fail. The electrical grid is apparently ancient.

So what are they going to do when everyone is running their air conditioner and charging their car as well.

Oops…I guess the politicians did not think about that.

It was the 300 coal miners in west Virginia that we are told contribute to global warming.

What a load of crap.

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zoulas wrote:
turkeydance wrote:
three things:

1. since Milk was mentioned: we freeze Milk. ours lasts over a year. we freeze eggs, too.
2. about Ammo: try the refrigerator, not the freezer. cool and dry and dark similar to the bunkers militaries use to stockpile theirs.
3. now Batteries: go ahead and stock up. they are cheap enough. if shortages never happen it did not cost much to load up.

I had to read this twice. You freeze milk and eggs? You are kidding right?

Hell, I didn’t know ammo would keep DRY in a refrigerator. I mean ya definitely wouldn’t wanna keep ammo in the crispers. Shocked Sushi LOL

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zoulas wrote:
turkeydance wrote:
1. since Milk was mentioned: we freeze Milk. ours lasts over a year. we freeze eggs, too.
I had to read this twice. You freeze milk and eggs? You are kidding right?

Nope. Mum used to buy milk on sale and freeze the excess. Careful thawing it, as the fat can separate out and it looks curdled and nasty.

Eggs, no. Putting cartons too close to the cold-air outlet in the fridge, and some eggs would freeze and crack.

I buy organical milk which lasts lots longer (UHT pasteurisation, kills more bugs but almost “cooks” the milk, giving it an “off” taste drinking it straight, but is absolutely fine in coffee, farina, etc.). Now I can actually buy milk by the gallon, vs rushing to kill off a gallon of normal milk before it’d to sour/rancid (ie, almost all the time).

And it’s ridiculous, like 3.99 for a half-gallon of (normal) milk, vs 4.99 for a full gallon. So I always go for the big’uns.

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flightless22 wrote:
How do you maintain them? I have a few dozen and I find baby sitting them extremely tedious. Not many chargers (at least the inexpensive ones) allow you to charge/discharge the cells to a certain voltage.

Before storage, I run them through a capacity test and measure the IR (at full charge). I write those values on each cell with a Sharpie then run them through a discharge test but I pull them off the charger when they get around 3.6V.

Every once in a while, I pull them out and check the cell voltage. So far, most of the cells still read 3.6V. I’ve only seen a few cells drop voltage over many months of storage. I haven’t measured them since before Covid. Probably time to check them again.

I use these for storage- Outdoor Products Large Storage Box

Photon Master
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zoulas wrote:
Photon Master wrote:
Hey, look on the bright side. Maybe batteries will get more expensive because of the tree huggers and their electric cars but maybe coal powered flashlights will be the next thing

You know in NY they tell people to conserve electricity in the summer because the Con Edison power lines oveheat and often fail. The electrical grid is apparently ancient.

So what are they going to do when everyone is running their air conditioner and charging their car as well.

Oops…I guess the politicians did not think about that.

It was the 300 coal miners in west Virginia that we are told contribute to global warming.

What a load of crap.

I can’t even describe to you how much I agree with everything you said my friend…

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Agreeing with something does not make it right. Coal is absolutely the worst polluting fuel you can actually have in every single way.

Back on topic however, I wouldn’t worry much. Production of cylindrical cells is currently being bottlenecked not by actual factory output, but shipping woes mainly.

When international shipping for bulk orders cost 2-5x as much, you prioritize orders in which the orders numbers are large enough to not actually matter too much in terms of shipping costs, which is why smaller sellers seem to have a harder time getting the cells.

My very own high current Beryllium Copper springs Gen 3:
http://budgetlightforum.com/node/67401
Liitokala Aliexpress Stores Battery Fraud: http://budgetlightforum.com/node/60547

zoulas
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Yes and No.

Not to get political but the politicians went after those few coal miners left in west Virginia. They put them out of business. Promised them “green” jobs” which as we know never happened. The women were forced to turn into prostitution to feed their families, There was wide spread drug abuse. To think that those coal miners were going to get office jobs selling solar panels is absolutely absurd.

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I was thinking more of the raw materials, if priority is going to all these electric vehicles and companies will there be enough for us and our recreational use? And if so, at what price? I keep reading that lithium production will hit a bottleneck by 2025 or something like that.

I love my wife’s toy poodle

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