No wonder the original screenshots look familiar!
Not quite: I don’t believe this to always be true. More to follow.
What I mean is the following: fix the emitter size, and fix the reflector diameter. Start the reflector depth at 0, and increase it from there. Does the hotspot size always increase with reflector depth, always decrease, or vary in some more subtle way? The former 2 relationships are monotone; I suspect that the latter is true, i.e., the relationship goes up and down at different points.
Here’s my argument for the hotspot size being small for very shallow reflectors, assuming a Lambertian angular distribution for the emitter. Since the reflector is very shallow, the proportion of the light that gets collected is very small, so the hotspot has low total luminous flux. At the same time, by the Lambertian assumption, luminance of the emitter is direction-independent, which implies the intensity projected should not change. Since the hotspot maintains equal intensity with less luminous flux, it must therefore be narrower.
This argument does not fully check out for real-world systems because (1) the LED is not perfectly Lambertian, and (2) shallower reflectors have a larger truncation at the bottom which loses projected intensity. The former issue (1), I think, can be resolved by noting that hotspot size is actually independent of total flux (or even intensity given other variables fixed) and dependent only on the dimensions of the emitter and optic; therefore, the argument holds for any emitter that has the same angular size as the ideal Lambertian emitter when viewed from every direction; this includes all domeless emitters.
The problem with reflector truncation can be resolved by considering recoil throwers; these have the LED mounted on a floating heatsink pointing back into the light, and at a very, very shallow, non-truncated reflector.
I think that as depth increases, the hotspot must become arbitrarily small because the spill angle gets arbitrarily small, and the hotspot must be smaller than the spill.