Coronavirus **personal experiences** thread

[bwl123]

Covid-19 Plasma Therapy : Explained | Rakesh Maurya, Lead Scientist, Redcliffe Life Sciences |

Covid-19 Plasma Therapy : Explained | Rakesh Maurya, Lead Scientist, Redcliffe Life Sciences | NewsX

[NorthernHarrier]

When evaluating any research in treatments for a disease, it’s necessary to look at the following:

- who funded the study?

- were there enough subjects to conduct an appropriate statistical analysis?

- were the treatment groups randomly assigned?

- were the treatment assignments double-blind?

- was there a control group of a size to do a statistical analysis?

- was the appropriate statistical analysis done?

• will the research be submitted to peer review?

In this forum, we haven’t been given the answers to any of those questions with the plasma study from India.

[NorthernHarrier]

It’s become popular to claim that state governments have issued social distancing recommendations and orders out of fear, or because of the malevolent intentions of various villains. In reality, the states that have mandated such restrictions have described the basis for their decisions. It isn’t fear. It isn’t a plot by one or more vilified groups of scapegoats. If you look at the state websites, and listen to the governors, you can see they based their decisions on the epidemiological evidence and projections of the scientific community.

Given that the epidemiological evidence is being attacked daily by famous people all the way to the highest levels of government and media in the US, it isn’t surprising that the social distancing restrictions would also be attacked. The governors are responsible for millions of lives, however, unlike their critics. The right thing for them to do is to use the scientific evidence as the basis for their decisions.

H.L. Mencken once said that the politicians Americans admire most are the ones who tell them the most extravagant lies, and the politicians they most despise are those who tell them the truth. Some day, I hope he is proved wrong.

[Muto]

@NorthernHarrier

H.L. Mencken once said that the politicians Americans admire most are the ones who tell them the most extravagant lies, and the politicians they most despise are those who tell them the truth. Some day, I hope he is proved wrong.

He will always be proven right for the simple reason people want to be lied to. Especially Americans.

Whenever they interview scammer convicts in prison after the gig is up and they just let it all out, they pretty much all say the same thing.
I’m talking guys that married 8 wives and fleeced them all, or guys and gals who scam millions by doing Ponzi schemes.

What they say was their secret to success is merely telling people what they wanted/needed to hear to validate their own opinions or paint them a picture of wonderful life full of all the places and people they would ever want to meet.
Even though most of these “victims” would later say they really were not sure that they would ever really reach nirvana, just the pleasant thoughts and dreams made it worth the risk.
Some were still not angry at the scammer, they had pleasant memories of their time with them, the attention paid to them and were willing to forgive.

TV Preachers rely on the same formula and are again very successful.

Look at Bernie Madoff, he is treated like a king in prison because of his great success at scamming.
Even when he was first busted, you did not see very many actors/politicians/tycoons who had been fleeced (and fleeced good) come out and scream.
They looked at him, nodded, and said to themselves “This is the way the game is played, he got me before I got him”
Some days you eff the bear and some days the bear effs you.

Getting back to truth in Politicians, does anyone remember Ross Perot?
Every time I see big white boards with lots of graphs can’t help but think of Ross.
He was right on so many things with his charts but Americans do not have the patience to actually want to study or analyze anything. Their attention span is way to short. They want someone else to tell them what it means.
Why learn to read when you can pay someone to explain it to you, and then if you don’t like what they explained to you (because it wasn’t what you wanted to hear) you can just fire them.

Killing the messenger is a very popular sport these days.
Enough for the morning ramble from me.

Have a great day everyone!

[pennzy]

It was a good ramble. On a positive note, the sun is shining in the NE for a change. Time to get outside and be productive.

[Bwana]

That was a great post . but it was to long so I didn’t read it to the end .

[djozz]

Known global Covid-19 deaths pass 215,000 – as it happened

The most significant news from today IMO. Just a short message: Germany, after easing a few restrictions a few weeks ago from the lockdown, mainly the opening up of small and medium sized shops while keeping distancing measures in place, has found the virus reproduction rate going up from 0.7 to 1.0 again (above 1 = bad news). As far as I know this is a first actual measurement of effects on the epidemic of easing restrictions, and a first glimpse of what can be expected from lifting lockdown measures elsewhere (although every country is different). This could of course be a combination of the direct effects of the bit higher degree of freedom of movement, combined with a general lower compliance to the social distancing rules because the urge was felt less now the outbreak seemed contained. I see a stern speech from frau Merkel coming up today.

[Rexlion]

@hank

Yep. You can look these guys up; Google wants to be your friend.

https://bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/public-health-responds-to-claims-from-doctors-at-accelerated-urgent-care

Public Health responds to claims from doctors at Accelerated Urgent Care
by Tim Johns, Eyewitness NewsThursday, April 23rd 2020

Among the topics addressed was the claim by the two physicians, Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi- who are also the owners of Accelerated Urgent Care- that the director of Kern Public Health, Matt Constantine, was in agreement with their statements to re-open Kern County.

“The doctor at Accelerated has spoken with our director. Our director has not concurred with the statements that were made yesterday about the need to re-open at this time,” Michelle Corson, Public Information Officer for Kern County Public Health, said.

Public Health says that in order to flatten the curve and get the county moving again, maintaining social distancing for the time being is essential.

… we concur that these are actions that we should be taking right now and we are steadfast in our recommendation to our community to continue this,” Corson said.

So you can’t trust what the “Acelerated Health Care” doctors claim. They’re pushing the “open up now” political agenda, caught claiming falsely that Public Health agrees. BS.

Next?

“Don’t be fooled again.”

Remember, your reputation as a fact-finder and truth-teller depends on your looking stuff up before you copypaste it.
Don’t just paste stuff that fits your politics — nothing in real life is as simple as the political spinners try to make it; particularly this Coronavirus science.

You point out one discrepancy. Your proposition is that nothing the doctors said can be trusted because someone found one discrepancy among all the things they said. The flaw in the reasoning is obvious. Maybe there was a misunderstanding or miscommunication between the doctors and Constantine. Or perhaps the doctor misremembered something under the heat of dealing with a slew of reporters, or perhaps they misspoke. This one discrepancy cannot invalidate all the statistical data they presented. Nor can it invalidate their boservational data based on years of experience, the facts they received in communication with other ER physicians around the country, etc. A minor flaw or two does not negate the remainder of truths. What you’ve done is no better than looking back in history and finding that Galileo made one wrong hypothesis at some point in his life, and concluding therefrom that he was wrong to say the earth revolves around the sun.

[Lightbringer]

@Bwana

That was a great post . but it was to long so I didn’t read it to the end .

Politicians suck. Politicians lie. People believe them. People are stupid.

Now you’re all caught-up.

[djozz]

@Lightbringer

@Bwana

That was a great post . but it was to long so I didn’t read it to the end .

Politicians suck. Politicians lie. People believe them. People are stupid.

Now you’re all caught-up.

Hmm, your observation sounds better of course, but it is a bit too cynical for me. In fact, almost every (dutch) politician that I met, from a variety of political directions, was a hard-working professional that believed in his/her mission. Lying does not happen a lot and if the lie is significant and is found out, it is political suicide. I trust the good intention of most politicians here, although there are a few well-known exceptions.
If I may vote for the best-trusted world-politician who does not suck, does not lie (at least I know no lies of her) and who I believe (although her political party is not mine), I vote for Angela Merkel.

[Joshk]

Politicians will only do what the public lets them get away with.

[hank]

Looks to me like Fortune is reprinting a press release that’s also widely available from other sources in India.
Google some of the phrases from the text and you’ll find other copies of it popping up.

This one for instance:

On the mechanism of the machine, Dr Jagdale says it’s the same like lightening effect that purifies the sluggish atmosphere following which can feel freshness in the air.

I think that needs a bit more substance.

I used to know a guy who wrote for Fortune. They did not always do thorough fact-checking of science/politics-related stories, though they don’t spin too badly.

This sounds like an ozone generator, though the article says it generates hydroxyl radicals as well.

Both are well known technologies, e.g.: https://www.bio-shine.com/2018/07/27/air-and-surface-sanitizing/

Here’s the EPA link on ozone air cleaners:

Ozone Generators that are Sold as Air Cleaners | US EPA

There is a large body of written material on ozone and the use of ozone indoors. However, much of this material makes claims or draws conclusions without substantiation and sound science. In developing Ozone Generators that are Sold as Air Cleaners, the EPA reviewed a wide assortment of this literature, including information provided by a leading manufacturer of ozone generating devices. In keeping with EPA’s policy of insuring that the information it provides is based on sound science, only peer reviewed, scientifically supported findings and conclusions were relied upon in developing this document.

Several brands of ozone generators have EPA establishment number on their packaging. This number helps EPA identify the specific facility that produces the product. The display of this number does not imply EPA endorsement or suggest in any way that EPA has found the product to be either safe or effective.

Please Note: EPA does not certify air cleaning devices. …

[Joshk]

On the mechanism of the machine, Dr Jagdale says it’s the same like lightening effect that purifies the sluggish atmosphere following which can feel freshness in the air.

Um, that’s describing the use of an electric arc to generate the poisonous gas ozone.

[SKV89]

@NorthernHarrier

H.L. Mencken once said that the politicians Americans admire most are the ones who tell them the most extravagant lies, and the politicians they most despise are those who tell them the truth. Some day, I hope he is proved wrong.

Excellent point! Jimmy Carter was an honest man that spoke the truth as it is but he was never well liked and not a popular president. He only served one term.

[shirnask]

@djozz

@Lightbringer

@Bwana

That was a great post . but it was to long so I didn’t read it to the end .

Politicians suck. Politicians lie. People believe them. People are stupid.

Now you’re all caught-up.

Hmm, your observation sounds better of course, but it is a bit too cynical for me. In fact, almost every (dutch) politician that I met, from a variety of political directions, was a hard-working professional that believed in his/her mission. Lying does not happen a lot and if the lie is significant and is found out, it is political suicide. I trust the good intention of most politicians here, although there are a few well-known exceptions.
If I may vote for the best-trusted world-politician who does not suck, does not lie (at least I know no lies of her) and who I believe (although her political party is not mine), I vote for Angela Merkel.

All people lie and life has taught that the magnitude of their lies increases in this order:

1: Joe average

2: Used car salesmen

3: Lawyers

4: Politicians

5: Politicians who are lawyers

[hank]

Breakthroughs are possible, researchers said. Ultraviolet lights that promise to destroy viruses without hurting humans are being tested by Columbia University scientists, who say the lights would be effective in airplane cabins, airports, hospitals and schools.

“As we speak, there are 100 hairless mice being exposed for 15 months,” said David J. Brenner, director of Columbia’s Center for Radiological Research. The mice live under the lights eight hours a day and get eye and skin tests every couple of weeks, and after eight months the researchers have found no damage, “which is encouraging.”

Scientists know ways to help stop viruses from spreading on airplanes....

[hank]

PS, here’s a fact-checking exercise debunking forgeries related to coronavirus:

Analysis | Three doctored covid-19 protest photos -- and other lessons on...

April 28, 2020 at 10:23 a.m. PDT

This is the latest installment of a weekly feature on this blog — lessons from the nonprofit News Literacy Project, which aims to teach students how to distinguish between what’s real and fake in the age of digital communication and a president who routinely denounces real news as “fake.”

The material comes from the project’s newsletter, the Sift, which takes the most recent viral rumors, conspiracy theories, hoaxes and journalistic ethics issues and turns them into timely lessons with discussion prompts and links. The Sift, which is published weekly during the school year, has more than 10,000 subscribers, most of them educators.

[NorthernHarrier]

@shirnask

All people lie and life has taught that the magnitude of their lies increases in this order:

1: Joe average

2: Used car salesmen

3: Lawyers

4: Politicians

5: Politicians who are lawyers

I chose to give up my job and career as a government lawyer, rather than tell a lie my supervisors wanted me to tell - so your smear of an entire profession isn’t entirely accurate. I’ve met dishonest people in every line of work.

Lawyers are unpopular in the western countries, due to their role in an adversarial legal system, but when I’ve visited countries where people are very poor and live in a legal system without many legal protections, they have a much more positive view of lawyers. Even in western democracies, when you get into legal trouble or are wronged by others at great cost, a good lawyer is a necessity.

[Flashy_Mike]

@djozz

The most significant news from today IMO. Just a short message: Germany, after easing a few restrictions a few weeks ago from the lockdown, mainly the opening up of small and medium sized shops while keeping distancing measures in place, has found the virus reproduction rate going up from 0.7 to 1.0 again (above 1 = bad news). As far as I know this is a first actual measurement of effects on the epidemic of easing restrictions, and a first glimpse of what can be expected from lifting lockdown measures elsewhere (although every country is different).

1.) The German reproduction rates are published by the RKI (Robert-Koch-Institut). According to RKI the reproduction rate varies between about 0.8 and 1 already since March 21st. Source (Abb. 4)

2.) The reproduction rate sank to 1 already before the main restriction (exit locks) came into effect.

3.) RKI reported a reproduction rate of 0.9 at March April 26th, a rate of 1.0 at March April 27th and again a rate of 0.9 today. So these are just variations. Source

Edit:
I made a mistake with the current reproduction rates. Date corrected.

[Rexlion]

@hank

PS, here’s a fact-checking exercise debunking forgeries related to coronavirus:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/04/28/three-doctored-covid-19-protest-photos-other-lessons-fake-news/

April 28, 2020 at 10:23 a.m. PDT

This is the latest installment of a weekly feature on this blog — lessons from the nonprofit News Literacy Project, which aims to teach students how to distinguish between what’s real and fake in the age of digital communication and a president who routinely denounces real news as “fake.”

The material comes from the project’s newsletter, the Sift, which takes the most recent viral rumors, conspiracy theories, hoaxes and journalistic ethics issues and turns them into timely lessons with discussion prompts and links. The Sift, which is published weekly during the school year, has more than 10,000 subscribers, most of them educators.

I took a look at the Weekly Sift. They certainly don’t strike me as fair, balanced, middle-of-the-road writers. Right away I saw this snarky remark:

That poor guy with the flag, unable to intimidate one skinny little female. He’ll have to go home and order a big new gun to restore his manhood.

Sorry, but people who write stuff like that don’t deserve my attention.