Joe Blogs – Financial Ramifications of Russia's War in Ukraine

Off-topic Chatter
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This is a thread about the financial consequences of the war in Ukraine. In particular, it is about the unemotional, fact-laden financial videos posted by Joe Blogs on YouTube. Joe does not take sides. He only discusses the financial ramifications of the conflict. His videos contain a level of detail not found in the general press.

Although I was hesitant to start this thread—mostly for fear of triggering a political discussion—I think his videos are of enormous import, so I wanted to get the word out. Please alert your friends.

THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT THE WAR ITSELF.

Please do not post anything about the fighting or anything political.

Thank you.

Here are the latest videos from the Joe Blogs YouTube Channel:

Joe also provides top-notch coverage of the hyper-inflation now underway in Turkey, as well as the pending real estate crash in China. The only thing I don't like about his work is the odd smile that he puts on at the start of each video.

[Edited to correct a couple of typos.]

My goal for this thread—stated plainly in my original post—was to introduce folks to the reporting of Joe Blogs. I’ve learned a bunch from him, and I have become a big fan. I think his work is unique and valuable.

Happily, it seems that some of you agree. The word is out, and y’all know where to find him. My goal has been accomplished.

Unfortunately, it’s getting harder and harder for folks to stay focused on Joe and the financial reporting he offers. The more important political aspects of the conflict have inevitably crept into the discussion. While I don’t necessarily disagree with the points people have been making, things have come off the rails at times. Up front, I asked that we keep away from politics, but that is very hard to do.

So now I think it’s time to say farewell to this thread. With this post, I have asked sb56637 to close things down.

Thanks for all your contributions.

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Looks interesting...

I don't usually watch online videos, but I read some of the Youtube comments, and people seem to really respect Joe Blogs.

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Here in NL almost everybody is connected to a natural gas grid. Until last summer prices were quite low and steady. Which is some kind of consumer thread in NL, because the population is used to a government that treats it’s natural gas supply as some sort of milk-cow. So every time the net gas price is steady long enough or even gets less, the government will come with an excuse to add (under some vague pretense) a little surcharge to your bill. These surcharges will rise, every year. And the government will also add VAT (21%) to everything that’s part of your gas bill.

About natural gas prices. In NL the most common ways to experience those on your bill is through fixed prices over a mutual agreed period 1, 3, or 5yr) OR a floating, open end, gasprice that’s adjusted every 6 months. The first kind is sourced back-to-back on the long term market by the gas companies. Here are no surprises, not for the gas company, nor for the consumers. It used to be my last job before I retired.
Floating gasprices are sourced on mid-term and daily marktes, and can fluctuate. But most gas companies succeed in making a profit every time. Until the latest price surge on the international markets. Some gas companies abandoned the twice-a-year price adjustment system and introduced a monthly price adjustment. My company did so too. My monthly advance tripled!
That hurts, but not as much as people are hurt when they ask the gas company NOT to raise the monthly advance because they think this is just a spike, and things will go back to normal pretty soon. The gas company gets its money though 11 monthly advances plus 1 final yearly settlement. The way this is going they will have to cough up several thousand euro when that day comes!

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According to the latest video by Joe Blogs, natural gas prices are certainly going to be higher in the Netherlands and all across Europe, the US and most of the world.

Joe presents an enormous amount of detail. All of the numbers below are from his video. The specificity is what I like. For the most part, Joe presents data, rather than his (or anyone else's) opinion.

If Russian imports cease, price rises are inevitable.

  • 40% of all natural gas used in "Europe" is imported.
  • Turkey, Germany and Italy are the countries most dependent on imports
  • Italy, for instance, imports 90% of the natural gas it uses
  • 40% of natural gas used in Italy comes from Russia
  • 38% of natural gas used in Germany come from Russia

Who Will Pay for the Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline?

Nord Stream 2 is owned by a corporation that is a Joint Partnership between five corporations.

  • Gazprom (Russia) 50%
  • Shell (UK) 10%
  • TotalEnergies (France) 10%
  • OMV (Austria) 10%
  • Unipor (Germany) 10%
  • Wintershall (Germany) 10%

To date, $11 billion USD has been invested over a little more than 10 years.

Future Status of Nord Stream 2 Is Uncertain

  • Pipeline mostly complete by September, 2021
  • Still awaits certification
  • At present, the pipeline is on hold

On Feb. 23, 2022, the United States imposed sanctions against Nord Stream 2, precluding it's corporate owner from accessing capital markets. Since then, Nord Stream 2's owner has faced significant financial difficulties, and, says Joe, may be considering liquidation. Many/most staff have already been fired (140 employees).

All European partners in Nord Stream 2 have said they do not intend to make any new investments in Nord Stream 2. Furthermore, this week Shell stated that it wants to divest itself of all of its joint ventures with Russian entities. Shell did not name Nord Stream 2, but it is a "joint venture" in which Shell participates.

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The certification process is halted indefinitely.

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Yes, otherwise the construction is completed since September 2021.

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In 2022 calling a certain company as being Austrian or French is untrue and promoting business misinformation, but news have to be somehow reduced for the masses, supposedly.

And things are even more complicated than these data show.

OWM “Austria”

Official website image!

https://www.omv.com/images/omv/2021-11-15/1522210038911/0010/1/900/507/1/Slide1.SVG

Total Energies “France”

Official website image!

https://totalenergies.com/sites/g/files/nytnzq121/files/images/2021-07/Graph-en_0.svg

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Uponor “Germany” has many owners, can’t even be called a German company whatsoever when it comes to the owners.

Official website information:

You can check 100 shareholders if you want, the top one are these.

1 Oras Invest Oy 18,030,780 24.63 0 0.00
2 Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab (publ) Helsinki Branch (Nominee registered shareholders) 16,583,892 22.65 –148,688 –0.89
3 Citibank Europe Plc (Nominee registered shareholders) 2,976,144 4.07 –61,715 –2.03
4 Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company 2,962,072 4.05 0 0.00
5 Nordea Nordic Small Cap Fund 2,794,538 3.82 0 0.00
6 Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company 2,300,000 3.14 0 0.00
7 Mandatum Life Insurance Company Ltd. 1,539,410 2.10 3,001 0.20
8 Sigrid Jusélius Foundation 888,286 1.21 0 0.00
9 Paasikivi Pekka Johannes 853,900 1.17 0 0.00
10 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company

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Agreed.

Today’s multinational corporations are just that. For the most part it is impossible, and even nonsensical, to try to identify them as being “from” any given country.

That said, I believe the countries Joe associated with the corporations he identified refer to the locations of each of their respective headquarters.

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It’s been done for years in press to name the country where the headquarters are as the company being from there while multinational was been used often as pejorative in the press unfortunately, but it should change to multinational by default, that is a fair simplification even if the structures are even more complex than the official graphs from those companies can show.

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Russia changed to gold back currency. They will recover strongly.

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Thanks to KeepingItLight for mentioning front and center that political and other similar subjective comments in this topic must be strictly avoided.

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The economic consequences will be severe? I look at my mom’s WWII ration book and in non-political fact based reality know that my family on the other side of the world has faced financial consequences like this before. Not much memory of such things these days.

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Forbid speculations on life-essential goods like food and energy.
As a fact, the area north of the tropic will become uninhabitable during winter.
This will include Russia as well, because they are cut off from technology imports, so who wins, except the bankers and hedgers, who have their villas and yachts in the tropical area?
Who gives the right to call 140$ on Brent futures?
If necessary, close stock exchange to discipline the racketeers.
It can not be that a few people fill up their bank accounts on the hard work of all others, and on all the blood and lives lost in war.

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I hope they will, they will have to rebuild entire Ukraine, They need all that gold to pay reparations.

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Reminder: No politics. Please. This topic is intresting as it is intended.

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:+1:

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Where did you hear Russia has a plan to take control of Ukraine completely?

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Lol, take control completely? never, destroy most of it causing billions $$ in damages, yes. and that is the topic of conversation, financial and economic impact. to rebuild what they have destroyed, it would cost trillions rubles, considering ruble today trades for 155 for 1 usd (was 144 few hours ago), it is not politics, it is economics.
But before it happens oil will hit $200 and every country economy will take a hit. now why opec wont increase production to stop it from happening, now that will be politics.
Right now Russian army, or the Wagner group is in control of 2 nuclear power plants in Ukraine, imagine economic impact of Chernobyl times 10 for Europe, and entire world.

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My hope is that one day people will be able to discuss politics on forums like this. I have learned so much here and there are so many wonderful people to learn from. Plenty of useful off-topic discussions where we have the opportunity to gain from the shared wisdom of this community. Sometimes I wonder if the biggest threat to humanity is now the fact that we can not have political discussions amongst people with a shared sense of community. At least not meaningful or useful discussions. That is a real tragedy yet we see it everywhere — not just this forum. Once the discussion is viewed as political all bets are off and toxicity will eventually take over. Don’t see where anyone has the opportunity to learn and grow as we are so clearly and repeatedly demonstrably effective at when it comes to flashlights. Given that politics is literally the foundation of society I sure hope someone, someday, figures out how to create someplace where political discussions can be honest and provide people with the tools to build a better society. That is the whole point of politics. Unfortunately as we see here and most everywhere fomenting distrust or outrage through political discussions is a clear path to power and profit so that is what ends up ruling the day.