Okay, but you later said,

That seems to say 500 hours when driven at 5A (1.66x rated max current). Or are you saying that the full 5% damage gets done in the first 10 seconds, then almost nothing after that?

Are we talking about the same LEDs? I thought this was about Cree LEDs, like the XML or XPL. What current are you using to do significant damage in 10 seconds? It’s got to be way more than 5A. If you’re trying to shove 8 or 9 amps into the LED, then I can totally believe 10 seconds. But if it’s 5 amps, I don’t think Cree’s LM80 stats or personal usage of high-output lights backs that up.