I dug everything up I could to try and estimate:

lumen claimed lumen tested candela claimed candela tested throw claimed

throw tested

BK-FA30S 2200 2199 650 000 563 000 1600m 1501m
LR7SV1 2650 903 500 1900m
LB11SV2 2650 903 500 1900m
MF5SV1 10 000 9 350 440 000 61 000 850m 494m
MM18JR 15 000 440 000 850m

so based on Maukkas reviews their lumen outputs appear to be bang on. to jump from 2200 in the BK-FA30S to 2600 in the two new ones is a 20.1% increase in output so it definitely looks like it's possible to achieve the additional throw.

Unfortunately the MM18JR didn't even come close to the throw specs but if they're indeed driving the leds 50% harder up to 15 000 lumens maybe they finally achieved the previous throw specs which were way over actual spec or they're only driving the 70.2s 50%+ harder to achieve the lumens and will have similar dismal throw specs lol I can't decide if I need them or if I should just save my pennies for the eventual MF03 or MF05 or GT4...