PREDICTING the biggest flash developments that'll hit in 2019.....

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nottawhackjob
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Enderman wrote:
mortuus wrote:
I wonder if we will see a 100k flashlight next year? even if possible would that even be legal to produce such crazy lumens monster light?

Vinh has made 100k lumens custom flashlights before, I think they cost like $2k or something.
Problem is that it can’t sustain that for more than a few seconds.
nottawhackjob wrote:
So does this mean someday you’re gonna challenge Polar-Li xenon to xenon? Becuz it looks like nothing right now except perhaps LEP even has a chance to remotely compete against an arc engine – unless you’re thinking of a recoil aspheric hyper LEP or something……IDK just throwing out crazy possibilities. LOL Facepalm
I just spent $500 on a laser if that’s any indication. Wink

Wooooo Hoooooo!!!!! I had a hunch you’d go ballz to the wallz.

Endy’s on the stalk.

Let’s see just to fun extrapolate. A stock W10 does ‘X’ meters. 7 X W10 does ‘XY’ meters and still could conceivably be ‘handheld’. A 7” aspheric lens plus a wavien collar coupled to a hyper laser capacitor-discharged mounted on a recoil arm firing on an HX Boost. Nah don’t get reediculous, Notta. Butt at least realistically there’s maybe inside 7 × 21700 = or a poop load of amps?

Polar’s gettin’ the watts-possible calc out.

The Sequel…….‘There Will Be Blood – In The Sky’ LOL Shocked

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

mgracia85
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nottawhackjob wrote:
Enderman wrote:
mortuus wrote:
I wonder if we will see a 100k flashlight next year? even if possible would that even be legal to produce such crazy lumens monster light?

Vinh has made 100k lumens custom flashlights before, I think they cost like $2k or something.
Problem is that it can’t sustain that for more than a few seconds.
nottawhackjob wrote:
So does this mean someday you’re gonna challenge Polar-Li xenon to xenon? Becuz it looks like nothing right now except perhaps LEP even has a chance to remotely compete against an arc engine – unless you’re thinking of a recoil aspheric hyper LEP or something……IDK just throwing out crazy possibilities. LOL Facepalm
I just spent $500 on a laser if that’s any indication. Wink

Wooooo Hoooooo!!!!! I had a hunch you’d go ballz to the wallz.

Endy’s on the stalk.

Let’s see just to fun extrapolate. A stock W10 does ‘X’ meters. 7 X W10 does ‘XY’ meters and still could conceivably be ‘handheld’. A 7” aspheric lens plus a wavien collar coupled to a hyper laser capacitor-discharged mounted on a recoil arm firing on an HX Boost. Nah don’t get reediculous, Notta. Butt at least realistically there’s maybe inside 7 × 21700 = or a poop load of amps?

Polar’s gettin’ the watts-possible calc out.

The Sequel…….‘There Will Be Blood – In The Sky’ LOL Shocked

Question
For the people who love throwers, why has the focus been LED if there looks like to be better options out there?

I love my wife’s toy poodle

Enderman
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mgracia85 wrote:

Question
For the people who love throwers, why has the focus been LED if there looks like to be better options out there?

Short arc existed long before LED and it is still much better than LED for throwers, but it is much more difficult to build because it requires bulbs, high voltage, high heat, UV radiation, high cost, etc etc etc
So for a small handheld light it’s almost impossible to make a good one.

Laser phosphor technology has only been recently developed, most of the research papers and documentation are less than a decade old.
Also since it’s so new it’s also much more expensive than LED.

nottawhackjob
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All kidding aside the term ‘Flashlight’ these days sure is getting streeeeeetched beyond reasonable coarse haired semantics.

I mean is this really a ‘flashlight’ as we commonly think of one?……

http://budgetlightforum.com/node/35688

Nah IMO it’s not. It’s a frikkin spotlight, even a portable searchlight, butt c’mon to call something this big a flashlight is like calling a Hummer an SUV. LOL It’s an urban assault vehicle, man. LOL

Anyway while I admire Polar’s ingenuity calling it a ‘flashlight’ IMO is on the cusp of BS.

To me at least a ‘flashlight’ is something you can carry on your body in a pants or coat pocket leaving both hands free if necessary. Now for instance I CAN carry a TrustFire X100 in my back pants pocket by shoving the head in first. Readily could do it even if the tube was somewhat bigger than the head itself too. Is it practical? Not really butt it IS doable. Likewise a 6D MagLite. Subsequently those are still ‘flashlights’ IMO.

Is the BLF GT a flashlight? Yeah. I can’t shove the head in my back pocket butt I can shove the tube part in there no problem.

Take Polar’s ‘flashlight’ and he calls it such. IMO it’s a spotlight. Or even a portable searchlight. Like the Thor above. Butt a flashlight?

C’mon. Facepalm

Imagine if you asked for a ‘flashlight’ and I handed you the Thor? You’d laff, right?

So for breaking records whether it’s lumens or lux I kinda hope we better enclose the term of what truly constitutes a flashlight sooner rather than later ‘cuz the way this is going towing your entry into the competition will be acceptable too.

“Where’s your flashlight entry, Notta?”

“Oh, it’s on the trailer behind the F350. C’mon I’ll show ya the shoulder straps I rigged up.”

Anyway I must have a bug up my azz tonite. No wait it’s the X100. LOL

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

Enderman
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Well there is no exact definition of a flashlight other than it being a portable artificial light source.

nottawhackjob
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Enderman wrote:
Well there is no exact definition of a flashlight other than it being a portable artificial light source.

Ok. Butt watt is considered a flashlight in vast common usage on this forum?

If you said I’m building a record-breaking spotlight I would think it’s FUNCTION is like a flashlight butt its FORM at least for me brings up a different image.

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

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Then what is the difference between that spotlight you linked and the 300 million candlepower WW2 spotlights.
See, there is no exact definition, it’s all a gray area.

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delusional wrote:
It was confirmed yesterday that President Stupid’s China tariff goes from 10%, up to 25% on January 1. This will cost a lot of us a lot of money, and on a lot more stuff than flashlights. He’s going to try to change the preferred shipping rules too. If that happens, it will hurt a lot.

Trump and China agreed instead of a 25% tariff today to stop the “unfair transfers of American technology and intellectual property to China”. I’d like to predict flashlights can be made in the U.S. without being copied for half the price in China.

nottawhackjob
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Enderman wrote:
Then what is the difference between that spotlight you linked and the 300 million candlepower WW2 spotlights. See, there is no exact definition, it’s all a gray area.

One is human-powered portable, the other requires something mechanically more powerful to transport the same distance. The WW2 spotlight if we’re talking about the same thing were called searchlights IIRC. The image of a searchlight at least to me brings up something on wheels basically. Portable but not truly a spotlight either.

So the gray area is getting grayer and grayer. That’s all I’m really saying here. Cool

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

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1. New LEP lights will show up. The low end will drop in price. The high end will improve performance. There’s a lot room for improvement.
2. BLFers will learn more about LEPs. What is the actual emitter performance/power curve? What power gives the peak performance? Can we swap the laser for a better one? Can we swap the phosphor for a better one? Can we move the emitter to another light? I’m not sure that all these questions will be answered in 2019. But some will.
3. Boost HX – I hope it becomes readily available, but I’m not certain it will. I hope it will perform as well as advertised, but I’m not certain it will. If it delivers….wow, it’s going to shake things up.
4. I don’t predict whether it will happen. But I hope it does:

  • BLF high current regulated 1s driver, be it linear or buck. This one becomes more important this year…
  • BLF boost driver for 1s in 6-12V out. If boost HX comes out, it may make this driver less important…

5. More flashlight powerbanks.
6. More Type-C

I’m somewhat dismayed by the false dichotomy – you can have either throw or high CRI. The latest developments really cement this. LEPs are low CRI and that’s not easy to change. Osram’s thrower LEDs are way better than any others that we’re aware of – and low-CRI only.
I don’t expect that to change but I’d love too.

nick779
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My two are that the F3WA gets finished, and we get a nice, thin 14500 light with a good driver. The Wuben E05 was a good start, but there are improvements to be made.

Edit: I hope Hoop gets some traction with Darkside Illumination too, I really want a Nymph or really anything that comes from him.

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Really like to see some active cooling lights.
Not something like the acebeam x70 with its fan handle Facepalm .

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I’ve been reading these predictions in the tone of the late 90s Conan, in the Year 2000 skits with their incan maglites. Good stuff and good discussion.

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Solderless surface mount and wireless.
Next year may be a little too early; but some “crazy engineer” with a little hole in the wall shop will figger it out sooner or later. Smile

"The sun, with all those planets revolving around it and dependent on it, can still ripen a bunch of grapes as if it had nothing else in the universe to do." ~ Galileo Galilei

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I hope we get to see a BLF triple or quad XHP70.2 pushing 12-15K lumen in a BLF Q8 form factor with a slightly larger head.

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lampliter wrote:
Solderless surface mount and wireless.
Next year may be a little too early; but some “crazy engineer” with a little hole in the wall shop will figger it out sooner or later. Smile

What kind of solderless surface mount?
nottawhackjob
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Agro wrote:
1. New LEP lights will show up. The low end will drop in price. The high end will improve performance. There’s a lot room for improvement.
2. BLFers will learn more about LEPs. What is the actual emitter performance/power curve? What power gives the peak performance? Can we swap the laser for a better one? Can we swap the phosphor for a better one? Can we move the emitter to another light? I’m not sure that all these questions will be answered in 2019. But some will.
3. Boost HX – I hope it becomes readily available, but I’m not certain it will. I hope it will perform as well as advertised, but I’m not certain it will. If it delivers….wow, it’s going to shake things up.
4. I don’t predict whether it will happen. But I hope it does:
  • BLF high current regulated 1s driver, be it linear or buck. This one becomes more important this year…
  • BLF boost driver for 1s in 6-12V out. If boost HX comes out, it may make this driver less important…

5. More flashlight powerbanks.
6. More Type-C

I’m somewhat dismayed by the false dichotomy – you can have either throw or high CRI. The latest developments really cement this. LEPs are low CRI and that’s not easy to change. Osram’s thrower LEDs are way better than any others that we’re aware of – and low-CRI only.
I don’t expect that to change but I’d love too.

Your #2 is intriguing on various levels. Specifically to mod LEP’s I ponder that one should/will become an expert on this laser class. Especially the type that can/will blind you permanently if you don’t know what you’re doing.

I kinda equate this upcoming LEP paradigm to electricians that know how the wiring IN your home works and can play with it competently vs a lineman that understands the unique characteristics of the high tension overhead that supplies power TO your home.

So I wonder, if the typical BLF LED modder (home level electrician) is adequately prepared to deal with some of these lineman level deals when he takes these LEP modules apart and starts fooling around with a laser. Maybe a P60 sealed module approach for most of us here is the way we’ll end up approaching this shift.

I guess we’ll find out. Maybe it’ll be easy. Maybe not. Hopefully no one gets hurt in the process of learning cuz ya know they think it’s just another flashlight.

Obviously this ain’t.

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

nottawhackjob
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CrashOne wrote:
I hope we get to see a BLF triple or quad XHP70.2 pushing 12-15K lumen in a BLF Q8 form factor with a slightly larger head.

“Have you lost yer mind?”

Answer: “Nope. I’m just a BLFer.”

LOL Beer

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

Agro
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nottawhackjob wrote:
CrashOne wrote:
I hope we get to see a BLF triple or quad XHP70.2 pushing 12-15K lumen in a BLF Q8 form factor with a slightly larger head.

“Have you lost yer mind?”

Answer: “Nope. I’m just a BLFer.”

LOL Beer
Hmm…Haikelite MT09R or MT03 II? Seem to check all the boxes except that they are only partially BLF developed.
nottawhackjob wrote:
Agro wrote:
1. New LEP lights will show up. The low end will drop in price. The high end will improve performance. There’s a lot room for improvement. 2. BLFers will learn more about LEPs. What is the actual emitter performance/power curve? What power gives the peak performance? Can we swap the laser for a better one? Can we swap the phosphor for a better one? Can we move the emitter to another light? I’m not sure that all these questions will be answered in 2019. But some will. 3. Boost HX – I hope it becomes readily available, but I’m not certain it will. I hope it will perform as well as advertised, but I’m not certain it will. If it delivers….wow, it’s going to shake things up. 4. I don’t predict whether it will happen. But I hope it does:
  • BLF high current regulated 1s driver, be it linear or buck. This one becomes more important this year…
  • BLF boost driver for 1s in 6-12V out. If boost HX comes out, it may make this driver less important…

5. More flashlight powerbanks.
6. More Type-C

I’m somewhat dismayed by the false dichotomy – you can have either throw or high CRI. The latest developments really cement this. LEPs are low CRI and that’s not easy to change. Osram’s thrower LEDs are way better than any others that we’re aware of – and low-CRI only.
I don’t expect that to change but I’d love too.

Your #2 is intriguing on various levels. Specifically to mod LEP’s I ponder that one should/will become an expert on this laser class. Especially the type that can/will blind you permanently if you don’t know what you’re doing.

I kinda equate this upcoming LEP paradigm to electricians that know how the wiring IN your home works and can play with it competently vs a lineman that understands the unique characteristics of the high tension overhead that supplies power TO your home.

So I wonder, if the typical BLF LED modder (home level electrician) is adequately prepared to deal with some of these lineman level deals when he takes these LEP modules apart and starts fooling around with a laser. Maybe a P60 sealed module approach for most of us here is the way we’ll end up approaching this shift.

I guess we’ll find out. Maybe it’ll be easy. Maybe not. Hopefully no one gets hurt in the process of learning cuz ya know they think it’s just another flashlight.

Obviously this ain’t.


Indeed, the hobby becomes much more dangerous. This applies not only to modders but also to consumers of lights. Before the first LEPs appeared there was speculation that light manufacturers would use fully integrated LEP modules. That turned out too optimistic. A manufacturing defect is very dangerous with LEPs….
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nottawhackjob wrote:
So I wonder, if the typical BLF LED modder (home level electrician) is adequately prepared to deal with some of these lineman level deals when he takes these LEP modules apart and starts fooling around with a laser.

No, they aren’t. There is a reason why the use of Class 4 lasers is restricted.

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nottawhackjob wrote:
Anyway while I admire Polar’s ingenuity calling it a ‘flashlight’ IMO is on the cusp of BS.

You’re absolutely right. It’s not a flashlight. It’s the flashlight.

Wink
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PolarLi wrote:
nottawhackjob wrote:
Anyway while I admire Polar’s ingenuity calling it a ‘flashlight’ IMO is on the cusp of BS.

You’re absolutely right. It’s not a flashlight. It’s the flashlight.

Wink

This is a rare case of bragging where it’s entirely warranted. Smile

nottawhackjob
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The_Driver wrote:
PolarLi wrote:
nottawhackjob wrote:
Anyway while I admire Polar’s ingenuity calling it a ‘flashlight’ IMO is on the cusp of BS.

You’re absolutely right. It’s not a flashlight. It’s the flashlight.

Wink

This is a rare case of bragging where it’s entirely warranted. Smile

Ya know my wife wood completely agree!!!!

LOL Thumbs Up Beer

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

nottawhackjob
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PolarLi wrote:
nottawhackjob wrote:
Anyway while I admire Polar’s ingenuity calling it a ‘flashlight’ IMO is on the cusp of BS.

You’re absolutely right. It’s not a flashlight. It’s the flashlight.

Wink

If you blind me one good eye from Norway I’m suing. Facepalm

“In many things in order to truly understand the small picture you have to understand the big picture first.”

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nottawhackjob wrote:
If you blind me one good eye from Norway I’m suing. Facepalm

Deal! Beer Cool Facepalm

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Zebralight never produced a follow-up to their compact S6300 reflector triple.
MecArmy/Altun exploded on the scene with their PT series triples offering efficient noPWM, larger than Carclo optics flood, interchangable battery tubes with easy to mod heads featuring unglued bezels. They only produced PT16 reflector triples in titanium and bra$$ models. The beams were CW only, and full of artifacts.
Now we have to hope for something from FF (are you guys reading this?), with special order sm4070e Nichias, reflectors by Eagtac orAndy Wei (Sunwayman), infinite mag control ring from the Jetbeam rrt01/TCR1, the same Altun USB (rechargeable) battery tubes (with addition of 16500 and 18500 sizes), offering extra heads and tubes a la carte like Emisar and Jaxman.
Include additional finishes Olight is fond of, and easy UI flashing as on the already exposed contacts Altun has on the undersides of the heads for those wanting ramping, presets, or attachment to your smartphone

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I predict Thorfire may make a comeback in the industry with new flashlights models. Their quality is typically good, even though I didn’t see many models in the pre-Christmas shopping season.

Who knows, maybe 2019 could even bring another community-designed Thorfire light?

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DD ‘drivers’ will finally lose popularity in 2019 due to low Vf LEDs.

2Q19

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“Peak torch” will be reached. The tiny proportion of the population who are interested in these things will have already accumulated so many, that are already more than good enough for any conceivable purpose, that they have no room for any more. A one-in, one-out policy will have to be adopted.

Torch mountains will build up as the recycling chain fails to cope with the megatonnes of discarded torches and cells.

Collectors and “investors” will grow older, and their heirs will take little interest in their obsession, when the time inevitably comes, and it all has to be cleared out.

The practice of buying multiple copies in every body material and LED tint, then boasting about it (with pictures) will become socially unacceptable. Rampant consumerism will become confined to only one part of one continent, where it is compulsory, part of their “way of life”. Thoughtful use of “surplus” money for humanitarian and charitable causes will become the norm. Mostly.

People may become nicer to each other, worldwide, but that’s not the trend at the moment.

Quality, rather than quantity, or cheapness, will become better appreciated.

The ubiquity of the voucher code, affiliate link, flash-sale, pre-sale, special holiday, special edition, group buy etc. will diminish, sellers will eventually realise that this is just an annoyance, better just to price and market things correctly, and not waste money paying intermediaries, which can only put up the price to the customer overall. The way things are done at the moment nobody with any sense pays the list price, but demands a special code, or gets upset when one is not available. Then whinges when the product is delayed, or turns out not to be the perfect Unicorn that they felt entitled to.

Cylindrical torches cheaply and easily CNCed out of tube and bar and poorly finished will become unfashionable and some design sophistication, and use of more interesting materials may finally prevail.

A new true BLF Special Edition, put together swiftly by a tight BLF team, that is really special and does something better than anything else, might be started, but I have no high hopes of that, there aren’t many left who have the experience, and I don’t see much new blood coming on.

Bug free UIs may be developed that are instantly understandable by anyone (along with efficient drivers), that don’t require an MCU the size of a planet and a gazillion lines of code just to turn on and off.

lampliter
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Agro wrote:
lampliter wrote:
Solderless surface mount and wireless. Next year may be a little too early; but some “crazy engineer” with a little hole in the wall shop will figger it out sooner or later. Smile
What kind of solderless surface mount?

Magnetic with filament pathways.

Trying to figure out how to make the patent drawings. Cool

"The sun, with all those planets revolving around it and dependent on it, can still ripen a bunch of grapes as if it had nothing else in the universe to do." ~ Galileo Galilei

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