Wow, okay, that’s quite a prediction. I’m guessing it might be sooner, though.
There’s almost no consumer demand for 18650 cells, outside of some vapers and flashaholics. All the demand comes from manufacturers that use them in their products. Those manufacturers could switch to another form factor of cell, if it is cheaper and has better capacity, and the public wouldn’t care less.
I’m guessing that whomever wins the electric car war, will get to determine the cell type used in other products.
It’s not cheaper though, and most likely never will be at least for a very long time.
Just like why almost nobody switched to 26650.
Isn’t this part of being a collector by definition (the art of collecting), collecting things some of which may/will become obsolete, even though still operable, and only meaningful to enthusiasts? Vinyl records are an example - which have and are, interestingly, making quite a come back.
I highly doubt that 18650 cells will completely disappear from the market. Their manufacture may eventually become extremely limited and only available to hobbyists, but I believe that we are many years away from that.
Isn’t part of the fun of collecting being able to show “what has been” and the development of things?!
If the 18650 stays as the cheapest/best cell for electric cars, then I agree. Is that what companies like Tesla are using?
If Telsa’s gigafactory uses some other size, then it may become the new standard for cells. Assuming they’re willing to sell cells to manufacturers of power tools, etc. I think that’s probably 10 years away, but not 20.
If 18650 cells are the standard for electric cars, then they’ll be around for quite awhile.
They have been.
Well, yes, but if Tesla is moving to 21700 cells, that might become the new standard. However, I’m not sure what other car manufacturers are doing, so 18650 might be safe.
can’t you still get actual cassettes, for crying out loud?
plus, A and B-cell batteries, for 1923 tube radios…
wle
I believe the 18650 will continue for a long time. The form factor will always come into play (18650 just describes a size really). Example - The AAA hasn’t been phased out because of AA batts. What will change is the chemistry and we will see 18650’s still, though not exactly lithium.
I say buy your lights and chargers and be satisfied because by the time they are obsolete (chemistry-wise and voltage-wise) you will be buying the new chargers and batts. because of all the new benefits, and modding that stuff (older purchases) you are worrying about anyway. Afterall, like a good friend once told me. “If you keep waiting for something better you’ll never have anything because by the time they market it they have already been R&Ding better products and will have something new on the way soon.”
My real concern with 18650’s is not so much they’re going to go obsolete, but that government keeps putting on more and more restrictions on them. Right now, it’s getting almost impossible to get 18650 cells shipped to Canada. There’s still some places that will ship, but that list is growing smaller and smaller all the time.
Eventually, I think our government is likely to ban them for consumer sales completely. The only way to get them will be black-market, or salvaging them out of things like laptops.
All it will take is some kid to be burned by a lithium-ion cell, and our government will be all too eager to ban them for our safety.
Thats a very legit concern. Even more reason to buy while you can if you can swing it and get a few different kinds and try to future proof your purchases (some high discharge and some high capacity, low discharge ones) and they should/might last you through the slump till the new ones show up on the consumer market, if they ever do,(hopefully not too expensive either), who knows what tomorrow holds for any of us.
For what its worth the newer tech they are working on is much safer and even if they are shorted they can be brought back to life, albiet with reduced capacity.
Sad situation though. Good luck with your portable power sources!