Opinions on the upcoming “Supply Shortage”?

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will34
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Opinions on the upcoming “Supply Shortage”?

So I have been hearing about the upcoming food and supply shortage for months from various youtubers that I follow that are not necessarily prepping-related channels.

I live in South America and I have not heard or read a single thing related to this shortage despite being a country where much of the food and lots of basic needs items are imported from the US… News and media are completely silent about this and are only informing about the gas prices rising, but I’m already seeing signs of supermarket somewhat drying up on product variety which they blame on the russia-ukriane conflict and elevated gas prices.

It’s not that there’s much that I can do about it, I live in an apartment in the city so I’m not in a position to become self sustainable with water/electricity or being able to stock up food for months. But anything is better than nothing.

So I would like to know your thought about the upcoming situation because none of my friends of family members seem to be bothered in the least, I tried talking them into preparing at least for a week and seems like im the lunatic here?

Edited by: will34 on 05/13/2022 - 19:52
raccoon city
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I haven't heard about an upcoming supply shortage, but I'm a few days behind in watching the news.

I don't watch YouTubers.

I think there will be some small shortages and of course inflation due to the pandemic and the war, but I haven't heard about anything horrible on the horizon.

chops728
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We try to stay stocked up ahead of our needs — Paper products, Meats and foods that keep well —- Then we kind of replenish before we are out — It’s crazy ( chicken for instance)- they might be completely out at the grocery, so you have to buy when they have it

turkeydance
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“…I would like to know your thought about the upcoming situation…”

we buy one extra when we go to the store.
one more can of beans, one more box of Kleenex.
over time, our panty gets filled and then rotated.

it has already been beneficial when weather
has made travel to the store dangerous.

finally, please consider your friends/family/neighbors.
one example: our neighbor needed Distilled Water for
her CPAP machine. local stores were out.
we had 4 gallons. gave her one and later,
when the stores had some, we bought more.

Couchmaster
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Will34 wrote:
“So I have been hearing about the upcoming food and supply shortage for months from various youtubers that I follow that are not necessarily prepping-related channels.

I live in South America and I have not heard or read a single thing related to this shortage despite being a country where much of the food and lots of basic needs items are imported from the US… News and media are completely silent about this and are only informing about the gas prices rising, but I’m already seeing signs of supermarket somewhat drying up on product variety which they blame on the russia-ukriane conflict and elevated gas prices.

It’s not that there’s much that I can do about it, I live in an apartment in the city so I’m not in a position to become self sustainable with water/electricity or being able to stock up food for months. But anything is better than nothing.

So I would like to know your thought about the upcoming situation because none of my friends of family members seem to be bothered in the least, I tried talking them into preparing at least for a week and seems like im the lunatic here?

I expect that next year the nut will crack. 2023 will likely be very very difficult for many. In the US, they will be able to afford the increased cost of food. As there will not be enough to go around worldwide, there will be hunger not seen for many years in many parts of the world. Violence and anger will increase. Evaluate your position and do what you can to prepare. It’s coming, for sure.

Lick
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It is simple. Russia and Ukraine supply most of the world's fertilizer, it may be nitrogen fixing through the Haber–Bosch process. The US makes a lot of food to export, we subsidize the farmer here. Meat may go up in price, but it may have no effect, since the type of grains like corn fed to the cows are not food grade or fit for human consumption. I am still buying meat at low prices and there is no immenent threat. I dont' see any issues in the US so far. There will be other sources that the US can get it from too. https://www.worldfertilizer.com/project-news/23032022/us25-billion-fertilizer-plant-opened-in-nigeria/ 

"Dangote said exports from the plant will go to Brazil, which relies heavily on Russia for imports of fertilizer. Shipments will also go to the US, India and Mexico, he said at the launch."

Couchmaster wrote:
I expect that next year the nut will crack. 2023 will likely be very very difficult for many. In the US, they will be able to afford the increased cost of food. As there will not be enough to go around worldwide, there will be hunger not seen for many years in many parts of the world. Violence and anger will increase. Evaluate your position and do what you can to prepare. It's coming, for sure.

That is not certain, many people are poor and do not rob, steal or beat others, while others do so when times are good. It is the culture, many people work together in times of need. The US exports so much food that it may not affect them much if at all, if corona didn't affect it, the cost may just go up or everything will be the same. Doesn't hurt to prepare but no need to spell certain doom.

brad
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Couchmaster wrote:

I expect that next year the nut will crack. 2023 will likely be very very difficult for many. In the US, they will be able to afford the increased cost of food. As there will not be enough to go around worldwide, there will be hunger not seen for many years in many parts of the world. Violence and anger will increase. Evaluate your position and do what you can to prepare. It’s coming, for sure.

I agree. Will34 start checking the shelf life of foods and products you routinely buy and use, and start buying ahead, you will save money and be building some emergency padding casually.

If you end up with more canned goods and rice and beans than you think at first reasonable, don’t fret, because inflation will make you feel like a genius eventually.

A 50 pound bag of rice and some canned meat products can fit under an apartment bed or on a closet floor or shelf, there is always a little extra room in apartments.

Not what we have but what we enjoy, constitutes our abundance.

Unheard
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There are global shortages, but since most people in developed countries can afford higher prices, they are of no consequence to them. But some developing countries already stopped exporting goods to protect their own people. At some point, shortages will become visible everywhere I presume.

Smile, you cannot kill them all.

Lightbringer
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Right now I live’n‘die by the sales flyer, and stock up on stuff when on sale so I don’t have to pay a premium when I need something and it’s not on sale. TP, PT, detergent (dish/laundry), canned goods (soups, ravioli, beans, chili, tuna), jar sauces, butter, bacon, rice, flour, sugar, lemon-juice, canned tomatoes (sauce, paste, crushed, etc.), salad dressings, boxed/bagged dry pasta, and so on.

Rotate ‘em out. I just got a bunch of sharpies so I can mark the expdates prominently vs having to use an electron microscope to search each package and find it. And yeah, that means occasional reorganising to put the newer stuff in back vs in front, unless you want to excavate some tuna from the Nixon administration in your pantry.

I only buy “fresh” stuff when on-sale if I’ll be eating it very soon. Fruits, veggies, deli cheeses, milk, etc.

Just recall when mothers were practically killing each other in stores over Beanie Babies and Cabbage Patch Dolls. And more recently over toilet-paper. Now imagine when it’s food that goes scarce.

“Donner Party? Table for 5?”

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kennybobby
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Lightbringer wrote:
… unless you want to excavate some tuna from the Nixon administration in your pantry. …

That’s so true. My brother and i were cleaning out my mom’s garage with numerous shelves of canned goods and just-in-case supplies, and found cans of old tuna from back before they inked the use-by dates, they just had some kind of code stamped into the lid. One quick way to tell: if the package is 6 oz size, then it is old (before the shrinkflation to the 5 oz packages).

Now i used to think that i was cool,
drivin' around on fossil fuel,
until i saw what i was doin',
was drivin' down the road to ruin. --JT

brad
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Lightbringer wrote:

“Donner Party? Table for 5?”

Remember

Not what we have but what we enjoy, constitutes our abundance.

achilles' spiel
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The only things at the grocery I’ve noticed are consistently short so far: infant formula/food, and pasta/grains.

Asparagus oddly harder to find but still present most of the time.

brad
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America will not face starvation because we are very self sufficient in the staples of life, grains, cooking oil, vegetables, etc., although the fancier foods and meat are and will become less common among some income levels.

What is sad is that parts of the world such as Africa may start facing hunger or even starvation, like it used to, and many young people don’t remember.

Not what we have but what we enjoy, constitutes our abundance.

sb56637
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achilles' spiel wrote:
The only things at the grocery I’ve noticed are consistently short so far: infant formula/food,…

Interesting… along that same line this just popped up on Google News:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-pure-panic-florida-parents-of-twin...

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brad
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Todays Guardian “India bans all wheat exports over food security risk”

India bans all wheat exports over food security risk

excerpt: “Much of that would have gone to other developing countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.”

This story is becoming more common, with the countries affected varying.

Not what we have but what we enjoy, constitutes our abundance.

chops728
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brad wrote:
Todays Guardian “India bans all wheat exports over food security risk”

India bans all wheat exports over food security risk

excerpt: “Much of that would have gone to other developing countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.”

This story is becoming more common, with the countries affected varying.

They need to Ban all their International Call Centers —- That would make all our lives a lot easier — How about their Hacker networks while they’re at it —- Big Smile

sb56637
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Hi everyone, feel free to express opinions on this topic, but please be sure to avoid all the geopolitical aspects.

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chops728
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Was my previous post Geopolitical

JenkinsMatti
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Don’t really have much of a comment because of forum rules.
But as I look around & see what I see from A to Z. I think hard times are coming and many will be completely blindsided & clueless when it hits full force.
Because the signs are there now, yet how many recognize them???

bobvoeh
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When the pandemic started, we bought a small chest freezer so we could stock up on poultry, meats and other frozen foods. We keep it stocked and replenish as it gets used. From time to time, the chicken and meat sections at the grocery store will be scarcely stocked, other times its full. So we get it while we can. I then portion it out and vacuum seal it with my food saver. Those foodsavers work great, highly recommend owning one.

chops728
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FoodSaver is the only way to store frozen foods for any length of time

bobvoeh
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chops728 wrote:
FoodSaver is the only way to store frozen foods for any length of time

You can reseal a bag of chips too. Keeps them fresh, just make sure you seal and not vac.

Lightbringer
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kennybobby wrote:
One quick way to tell: if the package is 6 oz size, then it is old (before the shrinkflation to the 5 oz packages).

In the interim they got sneaky, so “6oz” can, but only 5oz of tuna (and 1oz water/oil).

I remember being able to open a can and plop out almost all solid tuna. Later, I could squish down the contents to almost half the volume, and empty assloads of liquid into a small dish (which the cats liked, so who am I to argue?). Hell, I even used to use most of that oil in lieu of mayo.

Same with yogurt, canned coffee, even cans of soup. The last down to 10oz and change, vs 16oz then 12oz.

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turkeydance
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we have tried to switch to store brands, since they seem to be available more often.
some are really good and some are not. we suggest anyone to try some now
to find out what works and what does not, because they are much, much
cheaper, and, as a result, money goes further.

here are some examples of our evaluations
regarding “good enough” or “as good”:

1. cookies.
2. condiments.
3. canned goods.

not worth buying store brands again:

1. bread, since we are silly snobs about this.
2. batteries. well…you already know that.
3. books. yes, there are store brand books.

Lightbringer
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turkeydance wrote:
we have tried to switch to store brands, since they seem to be available more often. some are really good and some are not. we suggest anyone to try some now to find out what works and what does not, because they are much, much cheaper, and, as a result, money goes further.

here are some examples of our evaluations regarding “good enough” or “as good”:

1. cookies.
2. condiments.
3. canned goods.

not worth buying store brands again:

1. bread, since we are silly snobs about this.
2. batteries. well…you already know that.
3. books. yes, there are store brand books.

Yeh, store-brand katchup, mayo, cookies, dressing, etc., are largely as good as the Real Thing.

PB, not so much, as it’s more like Skippy than PeterButter/Jif.

Breads… Wonder has a weird stank to it. Key Food’s “Urban Meadow” is decent, Stop’n‘Shop’s was among the best white-bread I had. Always liked Bimbo best of all, despite the weird name.

Not sure about the books, though.

“Henry Pooter And The Prisoner Of Izbekistan” was kinda dull, and “Store Wares” read more like an inventory list than adventure.

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will34
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Thanks everyone for your input.

Seems like it would be smart to stock up, specially when the food prices are soaring (some items are seeing 30% price increase vs early this year).

Some items have completely disappeared from the shelves, such as McCain fries, in their place now they’re selling some German branded fries. Interestingly the McCain fries are produced in the Netherlands, despite being imported from the US. Cat food, used to paid $0.90 per can now it’s $1.25. Cat litter is even worse, from $16.99 to $20.99.

True Luciphile
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Lightbringer wrote:

“Donner Party? Table for 5?”

More like, “Table for 4½!”

Lightbringer
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I stocked up on some fava beans and fine chianti…

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FollowspotDude
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I live in hurricane country, so having a stash of emergency food and supplies is just part of living here. Like @Lightbringer, I use a Sharpie to know which items need to be used next and rotate so things don’t get stale and avoid wasting money. Not having to panic buy before a storm when everyone else is? Priceless.

Lightbringer
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Interesting info on baby formula:

Ignore the title, as it was just used to refer to an article in DailyMail or whatever, and mentioned for all of 10sec.

Seems there’s a formula factory that was shut down “for health reasons” and which hasn’t yet been reopened.

Also, in a pinch, there’s some… organisation (?)… that helps “connect” those in need with willing “donors” of breastmilk.

And bodybuilders buy human breastmilk?? Like, to drink? Wellp, I guess “milk does a body good”…

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Lightbringer
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FollowspotDude wrote:
I live in hurricane country, so having a stash of emergency food and supplies is just part of living here. Like @Lightbringer, I use a Sharpie to know which items need to be used next and rotate so things don’t get stale and avoid wasting money. Not having to panic buy before a storm when everyone else is? Priceless.

Aww, man, don’t get me started on those smoothbrains who hear for 2 f’n weeks straight about the Nor’easter-From-Hell that’s on its way, how it’ll dump 42” of snow all over the eastern seaboard, and wait ‘til just hours before it hits to swarm the stores in a panic to buy not just food-staples like bread/milk/eggs, but also salt, sand, shovels(!!!), and so on.

Like, how do you NOT know that you don’t have shovels? Or food? And WHY wait ‘til the last minute when all the other smoothbrains are out in force?

 

I thought it was pretty funny a coupla years ago when a tree knocked out the powerlines on the block literally a day before Christmas, how mine was the only house with the Christmas lights still lit (solar), and I had decent enough interior lighting (Zanflare lanterns) whereas everyone else was in the dark and maybe a few had candles or something.

(For the record, ConEd did a bang-up job getting the entire length of the block rewired in less than 24hrs.)

I’d like a way to keep the fridge (and freezer) cold through an extended blackout, but that’s for later. More interested in storing excess capacity vs selling it back to the powerco.

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