I may be just gullible but I do think Alfred did intend to send the lights. I don't think he set this up as a scam. That being said he didn't send them which makes him UNFORGIVEN.
If it was a scam I feel no one would get any type of refund at all, maybe just piss poor bussness practice and he took a gamble on shifting 150 lights to make his money. Sofar far there has been 3 threads with fake TR-3T6,s or people not getting lights, The lure of saving $10 bucks hey...
Just got an email from Paypal and they have decided in my favor.. RESULT !!!
I have one of the good MF 3 xml's. I didnt even need another one but thought I would give him a go. My mistake.
I am impatiently waiting for my email
As I said earlier I am not certain if Alfred is a frequent scammer or just a total incompetent. However, I think you miss the point re experienced scammers. A 'No refund whatsover' scam of this type would be pointless. The scammer makes very little profit from a single hit and it hardly covers the cost, trouble and effort of building the site. However, if you always refund those who claim in time then you keep PayPal happy. Your scam profit comes from those who miss the deadline and you are able to repeat the approach over and over both with group buys on other forums, etc., and with individual purchasers.
The very interesting thing about Alfred is that he said so very early on that he had shipped (in the full knowledge that he had not), long, long before he was under any pressure to say he had shipped in order to keep people happy. If anything that is the solitary piece of evidence which leaves me giving him the benefit of the doubt that he may just be a total incompetent rather than a regular scammer. A regular scammer would usually have left the, 'I've shipped' delaying tactic until much later.
I got my refund, not just an email. 
My Paypal was credited and I transferred it ($42.88) to my bank account. I guess the whole thing wasn't that painful. I was looking forward to my first triple however but that need was assuaged today by the timely arrival of my first triple that I actually now have in my hand - the Sky Ray 818.
takethatalfredFoy