This is a little necro, so please anyone perusing take notice and apply judgement, for example that Dr. Jones might not have a fair chance to rebut.
I had to create an account to comment on this nice but ultimately off-the-mark post which while a great explanation of many things somehow ended up seeming to state that lenses cannot change throw.
Dr. Jones you were completely right about almost everything but made one very key mistake.
You were right up through illuminance and throw.
You were still right that the apparent brightness of a surface, that you’re looking at (the important point), is its luminance and that this does not depend on your distance from it, for a lambertian emmitter. (a reasonable model to use for discussion but not to turn people off, this is just something that emits light evenly in all directions — well all directions away from the surface — apparently rough wood does a good job of this when illuminated)
The connection you missed (and went on a different tangent that I’ll get to) is that a lambertian reflector emits like a lambertian emmiter with luminance (and thus apparent brightness) in proportion to the illuminance on it. I don’t want to lose anyone with the fancy lambertian reflector term. All this says, is that any light (per unit area) illuminated on our surface that we want to light up gets reflected back at all angles equally so that luminance of that surface (light per area per solid angle) is just proportional to the illuminance of the surface by the flashlight. This seems and is obvious: the more light we shine on it, the brighter it looks. It doesn’t matter how that illuminance got to the surface, or how it is produced, by a big fat light, or a tiny point light, since it gets reflected back randomly regardless. So you basically had the full argument nailed down. Throw is apparent brightness of our distant surface, which is proportional to illuminance, which depends on luminosity and 1/d^2.
But somehow you switched wrongly to talking about the luminance of the flashlight and not the surface that we want to see. The only thing luminance of the flashlight matters for is determining how bright the flashlight looks if you’re looking at the flashlight. This is why these tiny flashlights can be dangerous. Their total light output is not more than a ceiling light, but the light is emitted from a small point so you don’t want to look at them.
The rest of your points about lenses not changing the luminance of the flahslight look reasonable, but this just tells you how intense the small flashlight spot looks if you look at it.
Absolutely a lens can increase luminous intensity at some distance, and thus can increase illuminance, and thus the luminance of the surface we are lighting. This is flashlight zoom 101. More zoom, more concentrated light, brighter spot on target. You only need your eyes to see this. Lenses do change throw If our surface was a mirror, then the surface would also preserve luminance and the the flashlight luminance would be relevant, obviously, because we’d just be looking at the flashlight in the mirror. But our diffuse reflector throws out solid angle relevance(at the surface, this can be confusing: the solid angle at the flashlight obviously matters) and only cares about flux, thus why illuminance of the surface by the incident beam matters but not luminance of the incident beam.
Now back to doming. In the end it doesn’t seem like you reach a clear conclusion here anyway. Domed will have more total light output. This seems clear. TIR can re-emit but not without some loss. So de-domed can only have more throw if the light is more focused. Maybe the lower critical angle limits the beam angle but not much if the LED surface is rough, and you stated it’s 120 for both domed and de-domed. I suspect there’s got to be a little change. Anyway yes, lensing of the dome CAN be an issue. How it is an issue, is it seems still one of the devils in the details, one you may have thought about more than me, but one that cannot just be dismissed by “lenses don’t matter”. Of course, absolutely, lenses DO matter for throw. So I think we’re still left with “try it and see”.
There is one final very important point about throw:eyes dilate/constrict.
For two flashlights with equal target illuminance, if one also illuminated the whole rest of the outdoors, especially including the ground near you, this will cause much less contrast, more pupil restriction and worse target visibility. I don’t have any great inside source of knowledge to say that, just common sense about eyes and my own experience.