XM-L2, Single Li-Ion Cell, Driver without Boost - What happens?

Just posted this over in the XM-L2 Vf thread. Here is the Cree datasheet graph showing current/Vf for an XM-L2:

Here is the Cree datasheet graph for the XM-L for current/Vf:

Here is HKJ's test of the Keeppower Protected Panasonic 3100mA NCR18650A at 3A load (photo taken from the 18650 Comparator):

This next chart may be better. Taken from HKJ's review of the same Keeppower 3100mAh:

So comparing the charts, it seems this battery under a 3A load with an XM-L2 (which has a Vf of +/- 3.32v at 3A) should drive the XM-L2 at this output for about 33 minutes? When I look at the Vf chart for the XM-L it looks like at 3A the Vf is nearly the same! I realize the charts are done at different temps, does this explain why they are appearing the same? Now I really am confused! According to these charts it seems that if anything the XM-L wants a higher Vf than the XM-L2!

-Garry