Coronavirus **personal experiences** thread

Now you’re deliberately twisting the information, untested fatalities with respiratory symptoms are simply being coded as “pneumonia” in many parts of the country (usually home deaths, can’t afford to use tests on the already deceased).

You’re aware that pneumonia is often a secondary co-infection right? And that this is what is killing many infected with COVID-19?

“All models are wrong, but some are useful”

-George E. P. Box

Has anyone any links to real, competing models or any peer review articles which discuss the parameters used?

I’m not interested in frivolous claims from the great unwashed that the “the model is wrong”- of course “the model” is wrong, see quote above.

LOL, go look at the CDC page (linked in my original post). There is a totally different column for deaths coded (by the medical personnel) as combination deaths. That’s why I stressed that these numbers are “Covid-only” and “pneumonia-only.” You’re saying the doctors, hospitals, and coroners “simply” coded as pneumonia when the people really died of Covid. My, how sloppy of them! Especially when the hospitals can reap a larger payment if they’d just give it the Covid code. These people must be really inept, eh? :stuck_out_tongue: Maybe they treated the patients for the wrong illness, too? (Or do you really think that a ton of people who feel like they’re drowning and can’t breathe resist the impulse to seek medical attention and die at home?)

Why do you say the 2.2 million figure is “totally non-credible”?

That number was preliminary, and other epidemiological models have come to other numbers. But that said it is a model based on science.

Once social distancing was started, the IHME model’s predicted deaths were appropriately tuned downwards, getting as low as 60k. Now they’re going back up and their current number is 134k by August 4 (3 months from now).

Some other models give higher numbers. Some predict that due to the premature relaxing of social distancing in many states, we could see as many as 100-200,000 new cases per day and 3,000 deaths per day by June 1. And that’s where the prediction stopped, but the curve was still on an upward trajectory so it would get even higher.

It’s now May 5. We’ll know in a month who was right about how this pandemic would behave in the States: personally, I’d bet on the epidemiologists being right over those who base their decisions on a political agenda.

Note that the ones who advocate reopening early are the same faction who said “the flu kills vastly more people each year”. That argument has been overtaken by facts. I expect their current position based on a political agenda rather than science to also suffer the same fate.

Reminds me of the saying, never wrestle with a pig, you both get dirty and the pig likes it.

Ignoration is the only way:

The arguing in this thread was annoying me for a while, but then I started to enjoy it, thus the popcorn gif.

I’m hardly an expert on infectious diseases, but I don’t believe it makes sense to compare death rates from a single infectious organism and a medical condition (pneumonia) caused by a large variety of medical/health conditions and even natural physiology in some people. That’s an apples and oranges comparison that has no value in determining what to do to stem the infection and death rates from Covid-19. Covid-19 is a single, very infectious organism. Pneumonia is not an infectious organism. It is caused by a wide variety of viruses, bacteria, chronic obstructive illnesses, flu, bronchitis, and many other problems - either singly or in various combinations.

Anthony Fauci did not simply rely on the estimates from the English model in making his recommendations to the president and administration. Anyone claiming that is the case is simply not telling the truth. He relied on the epidemiological data available at the time from all over the world regarding infection rates and mortality data, recommendations from infectious disease experts in the USA and elsewhere, as well as an array of models from a variety of sources.

These are home deaths of people that were not tested before or after death. They are not positively confirmed as COVID-19 and so some areas don’t code them as such.

Hospitals don’t get money for someone dying in their own home/senior care facility/homeless shelter/etc…

Ever heard of a do-not-resuscitate directive? Or looked at the number of home deaths in NY or other hotspots?

Parts of Italy were operating under triage procedure during the worst of their outbreaks, if you didn’t have a good chance of survival (i.e. older and/or less healthy) you weren’t getting the transport and treatment resources.

There has been so many conspiracy theories discrediting WHO and other health initiatives especially anything that has a remote link to Gates. But people have no idea that the Gates Foundation has direct and indirect involvement with so many health organizations and initiatives around the world. If every global health organization and initiative is discredited because it receives funding from the Gates Foundation we might as well go back to witch doctors and voodoo to address global health issues.

Just last night I rewatched the movie Wag the Dog and it makes even more sense now than it did 20+ years ago. I HIGHLY RECOMMEND people watch this movie and not get fooled into believing all these politically spun conspiracy theories and fake news.

Careful. That’s a warning sign you may be enjoying the conversation in inappropriate ways.

May 4, 2020 - by Heather Cox Richardson

Looks like social distancing has thus far worked in the New York area, but the virus is still spreading in the rest of the US

https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/96374608_10216063989623626_4873051880948760576_n.jpg?\_nc_cat=102&\_nc_sid=8024bb&*nc_ohc=F-h1liVVo7kAX*\_YPwm&\_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.xx&oh=4e021d65c40c54a6eb4ecc14b61168b3&oe=5ED5CE5E

Interesting updates.

New Jersey’s mayor suspected his flu in November was covid-19 and decided to do an anti-body test. Surely he has the Coronavirus antibody. He said “I didn't know what was happening to me. I never felt that I could be so sick… We all hear about how COVID-19 didn't really exist here in the U.S. until January. That is obviously not the case. I am living, breathing proof that we were all dealing with it months earlier.”

France retested their pneumonia samples in December and found that they had COVID-19 in December.

Much props to Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx for having some serious backbones to contradict Trump and Mike Pompeo that said there is strong evidence of the virus coming from a lab in Wuhan. Fauci also doesn't believe the alternate theory that someone discovered coronavirus in the wild, brought it to a lab and then accidentally unleashed it on the public. This is likely the reason why the Five Eyes countries didn't continue with the Wuhan lab conspiracy theory. They saw US's own scientific face refuting the claim, they rather not make a fool out of themselves in pushing the theory.

More links at the source page: Op-ed: Covering science at dangerous speeds - Columbia Journalism Review

Don’t take the bait. This is precisely what he wants. Because you’re absolutely right—COVID19 doesn’t kill people. It makes the lungs vulnerable. The compromised immune system lets something like pneumonia do the killing. Not unlike HIV/AIDS.

So those who try to downplay the death count claiming it wasn’t the virus is of course distorting the reality of the medical dynamic at hand. Such people love the conflict, the friction, so they’ll desperately try to find SOMETHING with which to challenge even common sense. Anything to get an exchange going & give their life some momentary entertainment.

Here's California's estimated infections, updated today.

As you can see, it looks good right now, but we'll be opening for business soon, and may experience a second wave for a number of reasons.

Graph source:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

A natural experiment begins.

The key in all of this will be resting upon the COMPLIANCE of the population. If you have morons who operate on a “seeing is believing” mantra, they will take an asymptomatic state of being as “virus free.” Behave like normal. No safe distance. Touching face, sneezing, touching others, with no concern at all. Which is precisely what caused the virus to spread in the first place. The tragedy is that it doesn’t take very many people to cause a rekindling of the infection rate. But that’s America for you. At least 1/4 of the population is a group of morons.

I agree, and according to an episode of Seinfeld, 90% of the population is undateable.