OP touches on two points:
- Incremental improvements are slowing down
- Lights from China are becoming more expensive.
On the first point, ‘technology peak’ depends on what metric you’re measuring; we’ve been in the realm of generally diminishing improvements for a while now- lights from 5 years ago are still have very usable brightness and runtime.
From a CCT/Tint/CRI perspective specifically, things have improved impressively over that time, and, while improvements are probably going to slow down without substantial innovations in chip design or phosphor chemistry, there is still some way to go to improve efficacy.
I see the wikipedia page for luminous efficacy lists the theoretical limit of white LED with phosphorescence color mixing as 260-300lm/W. I looked up the datasheet for the XM-L3 (I don’t know if this is most efficient LED on the market) and at 5700K, low CRI, 700ma drive current, the LED does about 190lm/W, suggesting that we should expect at least some small improvements.
With regards to User Interface, the proliferation of e-switches has offered the possibility of a much more feature-rich interface. If I had to guess, I’d say the advances in e-switch UI have peaked, and future advances will come from other innovations, voice activation, sensor based brightness, rotary switches, etc.
Phosphor converted colour LED’s are quite new, and I’ve not yet seen many lights using them. The Cree XE-G in particular looks quite good in output and colour options; I think they’ll make nice multi- coloured lights in triple or quad-arrangement with optics, or arranged more compactly in an orange peel reflector.
Finally, for the technology point, I hope that there is an increase in the availability of better (more efficient, customisable, etc) drivers.
On point 2, I believe the era of super cheap lights from China is over; increases in material costs, manufacturing costs, energy, labour, shipping etc are all going to contribute to price increases.
The political relationship with China and ‘the West’ is already changing, I would not be surprised if imports from the East get slapped with an ‘environmental tax’ or something when coming into the USA/EU/UK/etc.