For one, this conflict has forced us to think about what happens when you depend on others for energy and raw materials.
We should spearhead renewable energy adoption and a circular material economy so that we need as little help from potential bad actors as possible and decrease waste production.
It would be great work to try to solve energy and climate issues in our lifetime.
Use our brains to think of solutions.
Where’s the fun in that?
All the TickTockers need to “cancel” Adele for being “transphobic” for saying she’s proud to be a woman, or for being “fatphobic” for having the audacity to lose weight.
That’s where brains are nowadays! War, famine, pestilence, WW3… bah! We gotta “cancel” people and get them fired for mispronouning someone!
Seriously, mention this kinda thing, like economic implications of “turning off the taps” of Russian NG, or how cutting off Russian banks from SWIFT will just drive them into Red China’s open arms (Silk Road II, BRICS nations, Taiwan etc.), and these lackwits just glaze over.
Mention [insert idiocy here], though, and their eyes just light up.
I’m rooting for the cockaroaches.
My purpose in this thread is to draw attention to the videos of Joe Blogs. I have found them to be an excellent source for fact-based economic information on the current world situation. My hope is that some of you will watch the videos, and perhaps become regular viewers.
Please note that I have no connection to Joe Blogs or his videos. I am just a fan.
Joe's second most recent video covered two things: 1. commodity prices, and 2. the relationship between Russia and China.
Regarding commodities, Joe cites the following price increases for a range of commodities, all since February 23. The specific sources and numbers are covered in his video. Here is a brief synopsis:
Oil
Russia is the world's second largest exporter of oil. As yet, direct bans on oil exported from Russia have not been enacted. Indirectly, however, the ban of Russian ships from western ports may work effectively as a partial ban of Russian oil. Russian oil on Russian ships (and on ships flying "flags of convenience") would be blocked, while Russian oil on the ships of other nations would not.
The UK and Canada have already closed their ports to Russian shipping. The US and EU are likely to follow soon.
It will take time to find alternate sources for any oil not imported from Russia. This has created upward pressure in the near term on oil prices. The jump in prices so far is based on expectations, not current stocks. Current stocks are sufficient for current needs. Prices are rising, however, because future shortages are anticipated 3, 6, and 12 months down the line.
"Brent crude hit $119.84/barrel on Thursday, March 3, up nearly 24% since February 23, and the highest since May 2012." (Joe's video was released on March 5. According to marketwatch.com, the midday price today for "Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract" was $124.37.) "On March 3, West Texas Intermediate rose to $116.57, up more than 26% since February 23, and the highest since September 2008."
Natural Gas
40% of Europe's natural gas imports come from Russia. Russia is unlikely to cut off these supplies because they are profitable for Russia. Some of the countries that import gas from Russia, however, may decide to seek alternative supplies.
In the short term, there is no way to replace imports from Russia. In the medium and long term, however, some countries may choose to find alternative supplies. In some cases, more expensive gas may be imported from nations other than Russia. In other cases, more expensive liquefied natural gas imports may be an alternative to Russian imports. In yet other cases, a switch to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar may occur.
"Dutch gas prices hit a record 208 euros a tonne on Friday, up from 84.25 euros a tonne at the close on February 23, while British gas touched an all-time high of 490 pence a therm on Friday, up from 200 pence a therm." That is an increase of more than 145%.
Coal
"Newcastle coal jumped to a record $440 a tonne on Thursday, climbing 85% since the February 23 close."
Wheat
"Wheat prices touched a 14-year peak of $12.09 a bushel on Friday, a gain of nearly 37% since February 23."
Corn
"Corn reached $7.82-3/4 a bushel on Friday, the highest since September 2012, and a rise of 15% since February 23."
Other Commodities
Aluminum: up 17%
Nickel: up 24%, reaching a 14-year high
Copper: rising near to its record high from May, 2021.
Palladium: up 20%, reaching a 10-month high
All of these price hikes will translate to future inflation in almost all parts of the world.
The second part of Joe's video details the potential change in China's relationship with Russia. Joe focused on banking, attempts to seize the assets of oligarchs, and PayPal, which has shut down all of its services in Russia. As this post is already too long, however, I will leave it to you to watch Joe's video to get the details.
And for every loser in these types of situations there are winners.
For instance, you said;
Wheat
“Wheat prices touched a 14-year peak of $12.09 a bushel on Friday, a gain of nearly 37% since February 23.”
Corn
“Corn reached $7.82-3/4 a bushel on Friday, the highest since September 2012, and a rise of 15% since February 23.”
Well now, if I am a big Farmer that grows these crops, YeeHaw! I am a happy camper and at these high prices can absorb the fuel increase.
I spent one summer in Culpepper VA building huge grain bins and a big farmer there pretty much owns the whole town, the city hall the beer distributers, houses, etc.
The locals told us he made his fortune by stockpiling Wheat and timing the market.
Thing for me About watching the Joe Video stuff is it will not help my blood pressure one bit and really what can one person really do to change any of this in a speedy fashion?
Basically nothing, so why fret over something you have no control over?
Bawling about gas prices or beef or frog legs doesn’t do anything constructive.
I have lived through a couple “Fuel shortages” starting on the early 1970’s up thru now and eventually they all pass. Maybe the price never goes all the way back but it gets better. funny thing is during the 70’s crunch there were ads on TV and Radio saying “Carpool, Take the Train/Bus, etc”
Now? Nope crickets.
Can remember Cadillacs on every corner car lot so cheap in 70’s and small cars became a thing Not anymore, bigger badder bloated gas hogs and no one cares.
Also lived through like 10 end of the world dates so what the hell.
Enough from me.
Carry On!
Yeh, that’s why I tend to squirrel away stuff that “keeps”. TP, PT, detergent (dish and laundry), as well as canned stuff like soups, pasta, sugar, honey (just bought a 5lb jar of it), and so on.
Twofold purpose: stockpile in case of any (hopefully temporary) shortages, and a hedge against rising prices.
Contrast that to the idiots who wait ’til the night before a huge snowstorm that’s been talked about for the prior week, to go and get milk, eggs, bread, as well as shovels and salt. Like, whut??
What will really be interesting is how bitcoin-type currencies play out here. Already a lot going on with both governments and citizens as well as some disparities between the various platforms (and no doubt with dark web avenues).
Russia was very specific in the speech about the attack. There’s a purpose and results they are looking for. Can you paraphrase that?
Additionally, have you watch the Star Wars footage used in news?
General reply…if I may share this without waxing political even though the url is decidedly politics. lol. 
This is a rather fascinating article/interview recently with Fiona Hill. I did a lot of reading over the last week, digging a little more into various points made. It’s well worth your time to read through the whole thing if you’re interested in understanding a large part of the current and historical aspects of this tragic situation. Missing or generalized are some major points from the 80s and 90s. Quite an enlightening read, though.
I’ve been following various channels on Telegram as well (maybe too much…the reality there is harder to swallow than what we see on the news) and stumbled upon “Strelkov” Igor Ivanovich’s posts. Before I looked him up and learned who he is/was, I was impressed with his commentary (he’s an infamous “butcher” going way back, decidedly anti-Putin now but a staunch pro-Russian on a deeper level…no dummy but probably not a kind bone in his body, either…but his take on things is interesting to note in the overall scheme of things). Best to look up that link on your own if interested.
Back to finances, in addition to bitcoin, I really wonder if China’s efforts at establishing an alternative or new-standard system has any chance of gaining ground because of this. Likely not, but they, Russia, and I think maybe India? as well as some smaller players have been contemplating and talking foundational work for awhile I guess.
While Fiona’s interview hints at roots in World War I, from an economic standpoint it was probably World War II that changed everything and helped to set the stage for what we are seeing now and in recent decades. Many would like to see it topple and be replaced with something new.
For how long will this crisis last? Will it stop when there’s a solution to the conflict? Or will it last a decade or longer? What to do with the savings? I’m retiring in a couple of years. Too old to wait for any future boom time. What a mess.
More importantly for our hobby, Russians (and other ex-Soviet nations) are a big market for Chinese budget flashlight manufacturers. This war is likely to have a massive negative impact on sales for some of our favourite flashlight manufacturers.
I haven’t really followed, so I have no idea how far they may have gotten with it, but the BRIC[S] countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, on’n’off South Africa) were setting up their independent gold-based system of oil exchange. Ie, no more “petrodollar”.
Good thread . Informative, good discussion. Thanks .
I was thinking this myself.
For the most part, crypto-currency has been until now more of a commodity investment (similar to gold, but more dynamic) than an actual currency. When crypto reaches the stage where it is readily usable for virtually any purchase, then it will become a real currency. At that point, the notion of an embargo on a central bank or an oligarch will be almost irrelevant. Payments across borders will be nearly impossible to stop.
At present, there may be ways to track crypto payments. I have no idea how it was done, but I recall that $2.3 million USD of the ransom paid in bitcoin by Colonial Pipeline was recovered by the FBI. (See this NPR story.) Without any knowledge or expertise, I will surmise that techniques similar to those of signals intelligence are somehow involved.
Now Boruit flashlights is a luxury in Russia and that’s just beginning.
Buying power of Russians and Ex-Soviet countries is super weak anyway compare to the west and interest is low in branded flashlights for these nations (things you see on BLF), you don’t see any Kazakh, Uzbek, Kyrgyz or Azeri showing their 50+ branded flashlight collections like you see on Reddit from Americans, let alone a single flashlight.
Visa and Mastercard suspend Russian operations. BTW Aliexpress accept Paypal.
Soon in Russia:
The crisys is technically not new, problems in Ukraine exist since 2014. So almost a decade the country was territoriality undermined.
Some even could foresee some issues when Germany declared they will quit Nuclear power by 2022 and choosing to depend on Russian natural gas via Nord Stream 2.
Gerhard Schroeder is quite amusing how instantly as he ended being chancellor of Germany became and still is Chairman of the Shareholders’ Committee of Nord Stream in 2006, where they specifically call him “Chairman of the Shareholders’ Committee and former Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany”
https://www.nord-stream.com/about-us/our-shareholders-committee/
None of the Aliexpress flashlight stores I have bought from accepts PayPal.
Only Card, Wire Transfer and Western Union.
No problem
