Coronavirus discussion thread

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hank
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For those who want a comparison, here’s the European influenza news site.
tl/dr, flu is still worse than Coronavirus, and precautions are the same for both.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/surveillance-and-diseas...

klrman
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Here's an easy chart to follow by country.    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

On that chart, China only shows 2 deaths from the virus today.  If the numbers are not fudged, then experts who have studied variations of the corona virus for decades are right in that it will run it's course fairly rapidly like it appears to be doing right now.

andrx
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M4D M4X wrote:

Italy starts to shut down cities, scools etc
stores are sold out of desinfectant and gloves, masks etc
also other supply as people start to prepare for some hard days

even the famous Carnival of venice is cancelled!



in Austria there is advice not to go to italy atm….

just hours ago the austrian railways stopped a train in italy before entering Austria because 2 sick people are on it!!

Sad

they do this every time

M4D M4X
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andrx wrote:
[they do this every time


? not sure if we speak about the same

that train was not allowed to cross the border and meanwhile all trains between at Brennero are cancelled

 

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https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/766553/cinsky-prezident-prezivame-najvac...

chinese president said,that its the worst health crisis since 1949…and worst virus of viruses known before….of course he said nothing about his blame for the situation…well…

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andrx
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M4D M4X wrote:

andrx wrote:
[they do this every time


? not sure if we speak about the same

that train was not allowed to cross the border and meanwhile all trains between at Brennero are cancelled

i meant, they always check the trains at brennero…..anyway traffic restored, covid19 have not been confirmed Thumbs Up

brad
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Here is what is probably a Chinese government made or approved video of a survivor.

How I survived coronavirus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=px0KhOWCjwo

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spinynorman
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Looks like he’s going back for another 2 weeks of quarantine. Turns out the “recovered” are still carrying the disease.

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M4D M4X wrote:

Italy starts to shut down cities, scools etc
stores are sold out of desinfectant and gloves, masks etc
also other supply as people start to prepare for some hard days

even the famous Carnival of venice is cancelled!


in Austria there is advice not to go to italy atm....

just hours ago the austrian railways stopped a train in italy before entering Austria because 2 sick people are on it!!

Sad

 

German virologist Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten says "I no longer believe that a pandemic is preventable".

Scientist Gérard Krause (Infection Research) says "... unlike with influenza, we do not have a vaccine against Covid-19 and will not have it available in time."

Source: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/italien-coronavirus-pandemie-gefahr-100.html

 

My personal thoughts about this:

  • All efforts will now aim into only one direction: Too slow down the spread of the virus in order to mitigate an intense burden on the health system.
  • Germany or even entire Europe is not prepared at all for this. In my humble opinion, unlike in China authorities like police/army/healthcare organizations over here are not trained for such events nor is there enough staff available to organize a complete lockdown of entire cities. The rigid job cuts made by governments in the past have resulted in the fact that we will now be even worse prepared for the events ahead.
  • It has been proven that the incubation period of the virus can also be significantly longer than 14 days. (source) According to Chinese information, the incubation period could be longer than the two weeks previously assumed. A 70-year-old man in Hubei province has become infected with the coronavirus, but has shown no symptoms for 27 days, the provincial government said.

The main risks I see apart from unmonitored global spread by passenger travelling in the past weeks:

  • Infected people (in Germany) who showed no signs of infection or who suffered only light symptoms may still be carrying and spreading the virus. Knowing that the incubation period can be much longer than 14 days it is irresponsible that these patients were allowed to return to public life after only 14 days, not being monitored anymore.
  • There's an estimated number of unknown cases with already infected people who don't show any symptoms (yet) and therefore do not attend to a doctor. These carriers can spread the virus without any control.

To wind up with a slight touch of sarcasm...

Maybe it's not a bad idea to start recharging flashlight batteries and buying solar chargers. Maybe your flashlights will soon be a better means of payment than money. Wink

“Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.” (Haruki Murakami, 1Q84)

vresto
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i see,that theres no infected persons in the train from Italy….uff

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vresto wrote:
i see,that theres no infected persons in the train from Italy....uff

That's what media is telling us now. No offense but I start to doubt the reliability of information (and the virus screening in general). The German government has brought back some people from Wuhan by a military plane a few weeks ago. In the first place, media and politicians told the public there were no infected people on these planes. Later, when held in quarantine, some of these passengers were tested positively for Covid-19. As some people here correctly mentioned before: It is very hard to distinguish truth and facts from wild guessing and conspiracy, especially with regard to the news we get to see on TV or newspapers.

I don't mean to get political but I wonder if it's coincidence that during these days Germany's leading politicians are working hard to regulate and restrict the right of free speech on the internet, even though these laws certainly violate against European human rights and go way beyond anything imaginable in a democracy. As long as these hard restrictions are disguised under "actions against racism and hate speech" the majority of voters will support these approaches. With these tools in place, we will soon only get to know/see what they™ deem to be right for the public.

“Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.” (Haruki Murakami, 1Q84)

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You are being very pessimistic LP, things may turn out the way you describe, and perhaps if we are lucky, they may not. It is not looking good but it is still too early to be certain that the disease will not be stopped.

But my main reason for this post: I’m not a conspiracy thinker (conspiracy thinking IMO is a state of mind and usually has little relation to reality) and moreover I believe that conspiracy thinking is damaging society, your suggestion of german politics trying to cover up things seems unlikely to me and certainly not helpful for the situation.

Lux-Perpetua
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Well, I believe that "conspiracy thinking" is also a normal reaction of losing faith in authorities, less than a state of mind as you say. The downside is that once one starts expressing controversial thoughts or not agreeing to the general opinion one will be considered as a problem to society, being anything but helpful or being even harmful as you explained above. I expected to provoke this reaction. In the end, everyone will keep their mouth shut to avoid getting into conflicts. An unmoderated multitude of different opinions expressed publicly is something that rarely exists in real life.

I still hope and believe that things will get better soon and that everyone here will be safe and sound.

“Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.” (Haruki Murakami, 1Q84)

brad
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vresto
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Lux-Perpetua wrote:

vresto wrote:
i see,that theres no infected persons in the train from Italy….uff

That’s what media is telling us now. No offense but I start to doubt the reliability of information (and the virus screening in general). The German government has brought back some people from Wuhan by a military plane a few weeks ago. In the first place, media and politicians told the public there were no infected people on these planes. Later, when held in quarantine, some of these passengers were tested positively for Covid-19. As some people here correctly mentioned before: It is very hard to distinguish truth and facts from wild guessing and conspiracy, especially with regard to the news we get to see on TV or newspapers.


I don’t mean to get political but I wonder if it’s coincidence that during these days Germany’s leading politicians are working hard to regulate and restrict the right of free speech on the internet, even though these laws certainly violate against European human rights and go way beyond anything imaginable in a democracy. As long as these hard restrictions are disguised under “actions against racism and hate speech” the majority of voters will support these approaches. With these tools in place, we will soon only get to know/see what they™ deem to be right for the public.


i think so….what you wrote is truth…but nowadays is very hard to know the truth..about everything..

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If you are critical and look for independent sources of information, it is dead-easy to find truth, even on the internet. If you believe who yells the loudest on the internet, it is easy to be fooled.

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Based on how it’s shaping up in Milan, may want to prepare your supplies before all the shelves are empty. All it takes is one announcement by the government, and everything changes. I’m sure the people in Italy thought nothing could ever happen to them too…

Lux-Perpetua
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Djozz, is it that easy to find truth? A former colleague of mine once said to me: "If you want to know at least half of the truth, buy and read articles from three newspapers...one from the left-wing party, one so called liberal and one from the right-wing party." I would greatly appreciate to seeing a list of sources on the internet that are absolutely honest and transparent about what's going on. Regarding China we have been given only official numbers from the CCP. The WHO has not been able to report about actual facts for quite some time. Meanwhile, the WHO refuses to call this event a "pandemic" even though the situation in Italy, Iran and Korea gets worse by the minute.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-says-no-longer-uses-pandemic-category-but-virus-still-emergency-idUSKCN20I0N8

I assume that WHO news are considered as true as it gets. But what I read there is that authorities are busy arguing about terminology and definitions but still they do not act to be properly prepared to get the global spread under control. Every country in Europe is acting differently in order to prevent further infections. What's the point in having a World Health Organization when they do not have any real influence on tough decisions to be made?

“Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.” (Haruki Murakami, 1Q84)

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“but nowadays is very hard to know the truth..about everything…………. anything”

Im not a Pessimist …. just an Optimist with a lot of experience

djozz
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I like your wording “as true as it gets”, that is about how I like my news. And since I look for facts more than opinions (I like to form my own) I’m not overly trying to read all flavours of newspapers as long as I trust that the facts are right.

Unfortunately (IMO), the WHO, as any UN organisation, has no actual power, as most autonomous countries in the world will not give up any autonomy on any subject (that trend is only getting stronger nowadays). So the world is stuck with whatever the individual countries decide as separate policy towards one and the same global problem. The WHO can only advice.

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Thinking by yourself is to think over a matter and decide your own opinion fully independently on what everybody else think. If you are the only one of thousands that has that opinion, it is perfectly alright, as long as you think by yourself and that is your genuine opinion. If you agree with everybody else, and that also is your genuine opinion, that’s also perfectly alright.

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some ppl are too concerned imo

klrman
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"History is a set of lies agreed upon"........ one of the many reasons to be an independent thinker.

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klrman wrote:

“History is a set of lies agreed upon”…….. one of the many reasons to be an independent thinker.

Thumbs Up

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Quote:
Rhetoric is the art of discourse, an art that aims to improve the capability of writers or speakers to inform, persuade, or motivate particular audiences in specific situations

Liberty is freedom from outside control, power to think and act freely, freedom from captivity.

andrx
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Sean Ingram wrote:
Based on how it’s shaping up in Milan, may want to prepare your supplies before all the shelves are empty. All it takes is one announcement by the government, and everything changes. I’m sure the people in Italy thought nothing could ever happen to them too…

well i still have doubts about the real numbers in German, France and others; i don’t think that someone can escape

hank
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https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

TL/dr:

Quote:

Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, around 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

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hank wrote:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

TL/dr:

Quote:

Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, around 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

The way things were shaping up in Wuhan, I’ve been wondering about this possibility for a while.

I would not be the least bit surprised if it turns out the number of infections in China is already in the millions, and most cases are either asymptomatic or else mild to moderate severity and not recognized as distinct from influenza.

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If the thread is talking about coronavirus status in the world, can the title be edited?

coronavirus is worldwide issue, we, as human, need to combine and fight it.

Why people are concerned?

Because incubation period is about 14 days, the infected person never know he/she was infected untill symptom occurred. When the infected person go to hospital, about 14 days passed, many people met this guy which means a risk of infection.

The infected numbers pulished by government is correct or not, it’s not the key point. If infected people have no symptom, they won’t go to hospital. Then the government will not know how many people infected.

The best way is stay at home, protect yourself if you have to go out. After about 2 weeks, all the infected people have symptom and most will be cured in about 1-2 weeks. Hold on for about a month, the virus stops.

But that is the perfect situation. Different people have different thoughts.

Why people don’t care much?

The lethality rate is only a little higher than flue, some would say: I am strong and healthy, the virus will be killed by my immune system. It’s not a big deal for me.

But think about your famlies, are your kids, parents, friends, neighbours the same strong and heathy as you?

In China, things getting better, but we have not won.

We wear masks everyday.

We try best staying at home except going to office.

We try best not going to public place.

We buy daily necessities online.

Protect yourself, protect your family.

If you have symptom, go to hospital to see if it was caused by coronavirus.

If not, that’s good news.

If confirmed, stay optimistic, the hospital will handle it, you will be cured.

Sooner or later, we will win.

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